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Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

  1. #4451
    Administrator Letters's Avatar
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    Saw this on a friend’s FB from a friend of his who is a nurse

    I'm sorry this is needed. Too many people, too jaded by this last year aren't looking at pandemic health facts. View points are over simplified. NHS staff are not say twiddling thumbs. Neither are we dealing with a cold, or some flu strain. And this is global. (Think how hard it is to get any politician to agree with another. And we're not talking just within this country. There is high level global agreement this pandemic IS happening)

    Hospitals are not empty.

    In a normal situation, with a regularly functioning hospital a large proportion of space is needed for patients & visitors to wait for their appointments so time with the specialists, consultants etc is maximised.

    What's going on in this pandemic is that the patients that need hospital attention are usually are too sick for a 5 minute outpatient appointment. What they need is specialist specific care, & oxygen support. And often if they are sick enough for hospital, they need care for several days at least, sometimes weeks. Oxygen support is provided by a piped system, and highly flammable, so is therefore available in set places, "bed spaces". It isn't routinely available in out patients.

    So, you will see quiet spaces in the hospital, because anything that can be cancelled, or reduced back has been changed. ANY available staff are being redeployed within the hospital, to areas where sick patients need the treatment. So instead of outpatients where the ratio might be 10 staff to 100 patients for a 4 hour clinic, and the same 10 staff then see another 100 patients for a second 4 hour clinic, ill patients require about 20 staff to 10 patients, sometimes sufficiently higher staff levels to fewer patients and for 24 hours of every day, so you need a minimum of 2 or 3 sets of staff for each and every day. Suddenly the ratios are very different.

    The reason nightingale hospitals are not yet used is that they are set up for recovering, re-cooperating patients when staffing levels can be lower. However, there isn't a spare buffer of staff, that can magically resource it. All staff that can work are already working, in the regular NHS hospitals, or their usual jobs. Staff are being moved between hospitals, even between towns. Even if that's not their employer.

    Please stop saying this isn't a crisis. Please stop saying this is just a seasonal flu. This is the biggest health crisis we've seen in at least 100 years. A lot of what we're being asked to do is to reduce the number of us that get sick all at once. So there's enough specialist care & oxygen stations to be available to those of us that need it.

    And anyone in or linked to the NHS has been bent double dealing with this pandemic for almost a year. Please stop bashing the under resourced, tired healthcare professionals giving their all.
    She’s probably “in on it” though.

  2. #4452
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    One thing that is puzzling me is how come our case rate is so high compared to Europe yet the daily death tolls are similar.

    For example, on Saturday, we had 57k cases & 440 deaths yet Germany had 11k cases & 330 deaths, Italy 12k cases & 360 deaths & France had 3k cases & 150 deaths.


    When looking back over the last couple of weeks, the daily deaths figures in those countries seem similar to ours.


    Now there is a lot in the media saying the virus is out of control as we have over 50k cases a day for about week which is a fair point but what is going on in Europe? How come they are having much less cases yet similar deaths which would imply a more deadly strain?

    Are they not testing as many as we are or is there something else? If you look at the case rates, you would assume that the UK was out of control but Europe was handling it so much better. Once you add in teh daily death tolls, a very different picture emerges.

  3. #4453
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    There are so many factors here. Testing regime is definitely one of them. I don't pay much attention to cases. I now know quite a few people who have had it but they're all relatively young and none have been particularly ill. And I'm sure lots of people have had it but never had a positive test - my niece only tested positive because she's taking part in some survey thing where they test her every couple of weeks. Last time they did she tested positive but she's been asymptomatic so wouldn't have known otherwise.

    The more relevant things are hospitalisations - how much strain is it putting on the health services - and deaths. Those are the things they should be basing policy on. Although there is some correlation between cases and these things. Interestingly, Germany are now seeing a much higher death rate than they did in the first wave and it's rising:

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

    (Don't look at a single day, the numbers cycle a bit, I guess because of the way deaths are reported there, the 7 day average shows the trend better)

    Italy's second wave is about the same as the first but seems to be falling

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

    Our second wave is lower than the first but it's not trailing off quickly like the first wave did

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    And the excess mortality - another thing to keep an eye on - shows an increase above the expected mortality this winter which is being driven by Covid - according to how the deaths were reported:

    https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static...nd-latest.html

    But it's only 10% above. Not insignificant, but worth shutting the entire economy down over? I'm not sure about that.

  4. #4454
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    I agree you need to look at deaths & hospitals more then case rate to drive policy.

    Looking at those links you provided. Since Mid October, Germany has had around 25k deaths, Italy close to 40K & UK around 30k.

    Similar figures effectively, and all risen at a very similar rate. Yet when you see the media coverage both here & in the world, you get the impression that the UK is on its own and is a complete disaster yet everyone else is fine. The main focus on that is that we are having 50k cases a day and Europe isn’t.

    As i said above, if you compare cases to deaths, Europe would seem to have a more deadly strain but i think we would know if that was true. So there are factors into play such as testing etc. Germany was held up as the country we needed to follow as they were way ahead on testing yet now i think we are testing more then they are.

    The government has clearly made mistakes but I’m not sure they are quite the disaster they are being made out to be when you look at what is happening in Europe currently

  5. #4455
    Member Mac76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Letters View Post
    There are so many factors here. Testing regime is definitely one of them. I don't pay much attention to cases. I now know quite a few people who have had it but they're all relatively young and none have been particularly ill. And I'm sure lots of people have had it but never had a positive test - my niece only tested positive because she's taking part in some survey thing where they test her every couple of weeks. Last time they did she tested positive but she's been asymptomatic so wouldn't have known otherwise.

    The more relevant things are hospitalisations - how much strain is it putting on the health services - and deaths. Those are the things they should be basing policy on. Although there is some correlation between cases and these things. Interestingly, Germany are now seeing a much higher death rate than they did in the first wave and it's rising:

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

    (Don't look at a single day, the numbers cycle a bit, I guess because of the way deaths are reported there, the 7 day average shows the trend better)

    Italy's second wave is about the same as the first but seems to be falling

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

    Our second wave is lower than the first but it's not trailing off quickly like the first wave did

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    And the excess mortality - another thing to keep an eye on - shows an increase above the expected mortality this winter which is being driven by Covid - according to how the deaths were reported:

    https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static...nd-latest.html

    But it's only 10% above. Not insignificant, but worth shutting the entire economy down over? I'm not sure about that.
    Like you say at the beginning, i think it's less about the death rate and more about the sheer numbers of people in hospitals etc, especially considering a proportion of NHS staff are off with the virus themselves. So containing the spread is to help the NHS manage it

    that's the rationale, but like you i think the damage done to some sectors of the economy is questionable, restaurants being one example where it's pretty safe and yet they keep forcing them to close
    Last edited by Mac76; 04-01-2021 at 12:31 PM.

  6. #4456
    MOe Marc Overmars's Avatar
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    Sounds like there could be more measures still to come in. Though I’m not sure how much tougher it can get really, it is already a national lockdown in all but name.

    Feel sorry for the kids who’ve had their education completely fucked.

  7. #4457
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc Overmars View Post
    Sounds like there could be more measures still to come in. Though I’m not sure how much tougher it can get really, it is already a national lockdown in all but name.

    Feel sorry for the kids who’ve had their education completely fucked.
    I suspect the only measures that could come in are a return to the lockdown in march. No schools, can only leave the house to go essential shops such as food or attend medical appointments.

    Can’t see any one else and only other reason to leave house is exercise but on your own or with household member.

  8. #4458
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  9. #4459
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    Boris to make a televised address at 8pm tonight.

    Lockdown it is!

  10. #4460
    MOe Marc Overmars's Avatar
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    Fuck sake, I’m so done.

    What an utter failure the tier system has proven to be. Literally introduced then changed constantly until we get to another full lockdown.
    Last edited by Marc Overmars; 04-01-2021 at 03:03 PM.

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