Coronavirus Pandemic

[Niall_Quinn]

The letter R.

This will be a very important letter in the coming days, weeks, possibly months and years (or maybe forever). Already quite important due to it appearing in many words, the letter R will gain a new significance in the media and with "guided by the science" people as it is an epidemiological symbol representing the average rate of contagion for an infectious disease. In Germany, Merkel has already reliably informed her subjects that when R < 1 then can go out. But if R >= 1 they have to go back inside and stay there until R starts behaving itself. She notes that scores of 1.2 or above are right out, as this will stretch the hospitals beyond breaking point. This assumes the hospitals have become more brittle in recent weeks, considering the German health services are acknowledge to have handled the pandemic quite well at a time R was (frankly) taking the piss with a score of 3 or above. But, as always, the science is fluid and subject to abrupt change and instant reversal.

[Letters]

But isn't R < 1 because people aren't going out?
As soon as they do won't R increase?
We aren't going to go back to normal any time soon but some relaxation of things has to before the whole bloody thing collapses.

[Niall_Quinn]

But isn't R < 1 because people aren't going out?
As soon as they do won't R increase?
We aren't going to go back to normal any time soon but some relaxation of things has to before the whole bloody thing collapses.

Yes. R goes down when people do as they are told, but it goes up if they are naughty. It's probably due to the incubation period of the disease, which ranges from 15 minutes through 5 weeks depending on requirements. And the fact there's no immunity developing because... guided by the science.

[Ollie the Optimist]

But isn't R < 1 because people aren't going out?
As soon as they do won't R increase?
We aren't going to go back to normal any time soon but some relaxation of things has to before the whole bloody thing collapses.

Reading reports taht Germany is gong to have to bring back lockdown as their rate of infection has now gone over R 1 just after a week of relaxing the rules.

Pretty worrying if that is the case because it just means we wont even relax the rules next week

[Mac76]

https://twitter.com/ali__samson/stat...57766370533376

[Niall_Quinn]

I checked on Amazon but the only R detectors I could find were from China. Hopefully some of the ones being used by the German government to perform instant R detection within the space of a week (amazing what the science can do these days) will be made available to the public?

[Letters]

I checked on Amazon but the only R detectors I could find were from China.

Over there they call them L detectors.

[Niall_Quinn]

Fauci's ties to China starting to come out in the mainstream now. There's plenty more they haven't mentioned (yet), which may come to light or may get buried. We'll see. No point mentioning it now because it's a conspiracy theory until it appears in the mainstream media. Then people just accept it.

Also, Faceboot's "fact" checker outed for having ties to China too, including ties to the Wuhan lab. LOL.

I'm impressed these cunts managed to pull this shit off, but that was more down to our complacency than their genius, as is being demonstrated by the number of stupidly obvious loose ends they have left dangling all over the shop. Lucky they bought the media in advance or they'd all be in jail by now.

[Letters]

And if you think corporations and governments aren't incredibly interested in what YOU (yes YOU Letters) are doing then I can disabuse you of that fantasy. Data mapped to the individual with an ever expanding set of data points it at the heart of modern marketing and IT. And it's not for your benefit. Recent UK elections and referendums have been influenced using such data, mapped to individuals.

OK. So this is a pretty good point. The more data points they have about me the more they can use that to try and influence me.

I don't think "they" care what I do in the sense that - Letters goes to church, we're going to make that illegal so let's drag him out of his house and send him to the salt mines. That sort of stuff has happened in some regimes, of course we shouldn't say it could never happen here but I personally find it extremely unlikely. The Chinese didn't get where they are by accepting the Ts&Cs without reading them properly, it's a different culture, a different regime. After centuries of free speech over here and being able to do pretty much what we want I don't think people would put up with that. If your concern is we could sleep walk into it by increments then I guess that's possible but personally I find it unlikely.

We have chosen to allow ourselves to be monitored - in the sense that we allow a lot of data to be collected about us - because overall it has made life more convenient. Netflix means I can stream content whenever I want rather than having to hope there's something on TV I like this evening and if I'm out having to program the VCR. Hurrah. But it also means that "they" know what I'm watching and when. I guess the key question is what are they using that data for? I imagine they're using it to help their business model - assess what shows are popular, look at when people stream the most, etc. These things inform business decisions about the sorts of content they should provide and the scalability of their streaming service. If that leads to Netflix having more content I like and better streaming quality and reliability then great. If that data is sold to 3rd parties so they can target me with adverts for things they think I'm interested in (as I'm sure it is) then...well, less great but it's not sinister. Adverts can be personalised to the individual now. In theory that means I see fewer adverts for rubbish I don't want and more for things I'm interested in. In practice that doesn't seem to be the case, I guess the algorithms are pretty immature. But overall when you see targeted adverts you can often think what you've recently looked at that might have led them to think you'd be interested in that thing. But they're not forcing you to buy anything, they're just trying to get more of your money by trying to get you to buy more stuff they think you'd like. If that works then...well, the business gets your money, you get something you like. No-one has been robbed.

The Brexit result is interesting and yes, I know that big data was used but that data was available to both sides, wasn't it? If one side used it better than the other then more fool the side who weren't on the ball. But elections have been bought by nefarious means for decades, I started to read a book about the Kennedys and the way JFK's dad bought the 1960 election, the methods have not more sophisticated but the end result is the same. The Remain side had their chance, they ran an awful campaign and lost, the morons.

One danger I saw a good video about is filter bubbles
( https://www.ted.com/talks/eli_parise...es?language=en )
where we can get embedded in our own online echo chamber. Again, I don't think there's sinister intent, they're just trying to show you what they think you're interested in. I guess the only thing you can do about that is be aware of it and try to look at more rounded viewpoints.

TL;DR - I do understand the potential dangers. Personally I don't feel it's made a difference to my day to day life right now though. It hasn't stopped me doing anything. I don't buy that Big Data in itself caused the Brexit result, more than one side's use of it was better than the other side's.
I suspect the way campaigns have been run - as opposed to the actual issues being debated - have settled many elections.

[Letters]

Meanwhile, Barclays profits for Q1 drop below £1bn

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52467965



#prayforbarclays