Originally Posted by
Letters
Don't make me get out the hand puppets, this isn't difficult.
Models are imperfect, obviously. You cannot perfectly model how a disease will spread in a population of 70 million people.
The model in that paper predicted that 'x' people would die if nothing was done. If certain actions were taken it predicted that 'y' people would die.
Those actions were taken and the numbers being reported are in the ballpark of 'y'.
Would there have been 'x' deaths had those actions not been taken? We will never know. But there is no doubt that the actions taken have helped save lives. How many will never be known.
EDIT: Had no actions been taken and the death toll was 'y' of course then that would show the model was rubbish, but that isn't what has happened.