Finishing ahead of the Spufs....

[Özil's Panoramic View]

Ok, so we are currently 4 points below the scums from down the road with 12 games to go. Do you see us catching and overtaking our perennial shadow dwellers and at what point?

Personally, I think they are due a rotten spell which would ideally commence March 3rd. We are also due some kind of a winning streak which makes the timing even more perfect.

To sweeten the pot a bit, there would be no greater joy than us finishing 5th, Spufs finishing 4th, but we win the CL.... Spufs :pal: I want this to be a realistic thread though, so please disregard this wishful thinking bit.

[Niall_Quinn]

Going on the evidence of the past there seems very little hope for those shit bags to stay ahead of us. Psychologically they already know they won't finish above us.

[Cripps_orig]

They'll finish above us eventually. Why not this season?

For me personally, there would be no greater joy than winning the CL regardless of where we finish in the league. Couldn't care less about Spuds.

[Özil's Panoramic View]

They'll finish above us eventually.

Says who? :shrug:

[Cripps_orig]

Life. We aren't going to go through the rest of time finishing above them. They'll have their day. Might be this season.

[Niall_Quinn]

We aren't going to go through the rest of time finishing above them.

Of course we are. DUH.

[Xhaka Can’t]

While I don't want to finish below them and I certainly don't think we will win the CL, if both those things happened and they finished 4th, I'd laugh my ass off until the end of time.

[fakeyank]

If we win the CL and they get dumped out AGAIN, I will donate 1000$ to UNICEF. Quote me on this!

And I'll of course laugh till the end of time... I will probably have a permanent grin on my face for life!

[Marc Overmars]

We caught them after a bigger gap last season so I don't see why it can't happen again.

Unfortunately I do think they're a better team now under AVB and we're quite evenly matched these days, so it's there for whoever puts a winning run together and hopefully that's us.

[Injury Time]

If we win the CL and they get dumped out AGAIN, I will donate 1000$ to UNICEF. Quote me on this!

And I'll of course laugh till the end of time... I will probably have a permanent grin on my face for life!

:good:

[Kano]

Ok, so we are currently 4 points below the scums from down the road with 12 games to go. Do you see us catching and overtaking our perennial shadow dwellers and at what point?

Personally, I think they are due a rotten spell which would ideally commence March 3rd. We are also due some kind of a winning streak which makes the timing even more perfect.

To sweeten the pot a bit, there would be no greater joy than us finishing 5th, Spufs finishing 4th, but we win the CL.... Spufs :pal: I want this to be a realistic thread though, so please disregard this wishful thinking bit.
i can't see it myself and even if we do, and as hilarious as it would be to see them crumble, there isn't much to punch the air about finishing fourth again. it just secures yet another season of the same sort of thing. if our aims are now reduced to solely finishing above spurs and finishing fourth then it's hardly the good times.

[GP]

i can't see it myself and even if we do, and as hilarious as it would be to see them crumble, there isn't much to punch the air about finishing fourth again. it just secures yet another season of the same sort of thing. if our aims are now reduced to solely finishing above spurs and finishing fourth then it's hardly the good times.

Well, obviously not. But finishing 4th is still better than finishing 5th.

[Kano]

i'm not so sure of that anymore.

[GP]

:doh:

[Letters]

i can't see it myself and even if we do, and as hilarious as it would be to see them crumble, there isn't much to punch the air about finishing fourth again. it just secures yet another season of the same sort of thing. if our aims are now reduced to solely finishing above spurs and finishing fourth then it's hardly the good times.
Spurs hardly need to 'crumble' for us to finish 4th. They're 4 points ahead of us with 12 games left. It's nothing.
They've got a tougher run-in too.
If we lose at WHL though then we're in trouble.

[dazthegooner]

If we lose at WHL though then we're in trouble.[/QUOTE]

Wash your mouth out with soap!!! :angry:

[Kano]

Spurs hardly need to 'crumble' for us to finish 4th. They're 4 points ahead of us with 12 games left. It's nothing.
They've got a tougher run-in too.
If we lose at WHL though then we're in trouble.
It's not just 4 points we have to achieve - it's that plus staying ahead of them or chelsea (whoever drops to fourth). so they would have to completely fall apart like last season for it to happen and i don't see that under avb, although rafa may help everyone out in the end.

[Letters]

Tbf even in our pomp we didn't win there that often. We won't win there. I'd take a draw. Keeps us in the hunt.

[Letters]

It's not just 4 points we have to achieve - it's that plus staying ahead of them or chelsea (whoever drops to fourth). so they would have to completely fall apart like last season for it to happen and i don't see that under avb, although rafa may help everyone out in the end.
No, they wouldn't have to completely fall apart. Let's say we draw at WHL. All we need is to keep pace with them and have 2 weekends where we win and they draw. Given their harder run-in it's hardly implausible or a collapse. Utd would have to collapse not to win the title, Spurs wouldn't have to in order to finish below us.

[Kano]

all we need to do? seeing as we have had no consistency at all this season, you make it sound very easy. given their lead and our lack of drive this season then it would take a big collapse for them for us to finish higher and/or in fourth.

[Letters]

all we need to do? seeing as we have had no consistency at all this season, you make it sound very easy. given their lead and our lack of drive this season then it would take a big collapse for them for us to finish higher and/or in fourth.
After 26 games they have 4 more points than us and a poorer goal difference. That hardly shows a huge gulf in quality between the sides.
And we have an easier run in (which means up to this point we must have had slightly tougher games).
So no, it wouldn't take a big collapse from them. All season they've clearly been dropping nearly as many points as us. Otherwise they'd be miles ahead. Given their tougher run in why would it be such a dramatic collapse for them to drop 4 more than us in the next 12 games?

[Kano]

easier run in on paper. how many times do we fuck up on simple games or just don't do enough when necessary. they have shown more consistent patches than we have and i see no reason that will change. you keep harking on about four points but believe you me, it will take a lot more than that to secure finishing above them in terms of a winning run.

[LDG]

I don't think we'll get top four.

[Letters]

easier run in on paper. how many times do we fuck up on simple games or just don't do enough when necessary.
Clearly about the same number of times as Spurs, otherwise they'd be miles ahead.
I keep harking on about 4 points because with 3 points for a win it's a small gap. You're acting like Spurs have been ultra-consistent this year while we've been a shambling mess. Were that true we'd be miles behind. We've had harder games than them and are still only 4 points behind, there's clearly not much between the sides this year. Spurs don't need to 'collapse', we don't need to go on a long winning streak. Both sides will drop silly points in the run-in, it's looking like it'll be a close run thing this year.

[Kano]

now, you're bending my words. i've been very clear in what i said. we need a big winning streak because they will rack up more points and we need to stay ahead. it's the third time i've written that. fair enough we disagree, that happens but don't rewrite it.

[Cripps_orig]

Disgusting how Evertons chances of finishing 4th are treated on here

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Everton. :lol:

They don't have a hope in hell.

[Injury Time]

I so don't care where Spufs finish, so long as we get the triple I'll be happy :ilt:

[Letters]

we need a big winning streak because they will rack up more points and we need to stay ahead.
What are you basing that on? We're 26 games in, we've had slightly harder games and they're a whopping 4 points ahead of us.
We've not had a big winning streak yet but clearly they haven't either or they'd be miles ahead. Why do we suddenly need a big winning streak now to overhaul them given their harder run-in?
I find it hard to call as to most Arsenal and Spurs fans I've spoken to but we certainly don't need Spurs to collapse, neither do we need to suddenly win 5 games in a row. If both teams keep bumbling along as they have been then it'll be close with a few results here and there deciding it. The WHL game is key IMO. Lose that and I can't see us finishing 4th. Get a draw and with Spurs harder run-in we've got a chance.

[Kano]

look back at my previous points and you'll see, or shall i repeat it again for you?

70 points usually for fourth. we need about nine wins from 12 games. where this sudden boost of confidence in our ability to do that without putting in our usual lazy performances is beyond me.

[Cripps_orig]

Everton. :lol:

They don't have a hope in hell.
Hope so then we can make cheeky bids for Baines and Fellaini

[McNamara That Ghost...]

look back at my previous points and you'll see, or shall i repeat it again for you?

70 points usually for fourth. we need about nine wins from 12 games. where this sudden boost of confidence in our ability to do that without putting in our usual lazy performances is beyond me.

If in the next 12 we do what we have in the previous 12, we'd be on 68 I think. If we're seeing the same things from us season in season out then it stands to reason we will be very close to what points we normally end up with.

[Cripps_orig]

Think it's time we saw a Next 6 games thread but also put Chelsea's, Spuds and Evertons fixtures and do a Hogan and predict them

[Kano]

If in the next 12 we do what we have in the last 12, we'd be on 68 I think. If we're seeing the same things from us season in season out then it stands to reason we will be very close to what points we normally end up with.
well that's exactly why i think we won't do it because we are gradually decreasing in what we can achieve. no world class striker to pull it out the bag when we really need a win or even a point and at some point we crash, as we did last season but when we had a cushion to do so. if spurs performed as they did in their last eleven, that would leave them over 70 i think.

we finished a single point above them last year when that gap should've been a lot bigger and bar having th14 and co, we have never gone on a run that lasts right to the end of the season to do what we need to do now.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

well that's exactly why i think we won't do it because we are gradually decreasing in what we can achieve. no world class striker to pull it out the bag when we really need a win or even a point and at some point we crash, as we did last season but when we had a cushion to do so. if spurs performed as they did in their last eleven, that would leave them over 70 i think.

we finished a single point above them last year when that gap should've been a lot bigger and bar having th14 and co, we have never gone on a run that lasts right to the end of the season to do what we need to do now.

We're basically where we were with RVP anyway so I'm not sure it really makes any difference whether he is here or not, thankfully. And yes Tottenham would have over 70 on that basis but the point of mentioning wasn't saying those are the points totals we'll both end up with but just to give a marker we'll be somewhere around that region.

We finished a point above them after being 12 points behind, that's the key part of last season. We don't need a run of what would be 13 in a row a la 01/02, we're talking on a much smaller scale than that. We'll get to at least 19 wins I am sure, as that is what we have always achieved and until we don't, I'm going to keep thinking that we will.

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

I might have thought about possibly considering including us as an outside chance in this thread, on Sunday. Not 4th, just ahead of the Spufs.

Not now.

[GP]

I might have thought about possibly considering including us as an outside chance in this thread, on Sunday.

Not now.

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mc2dr4FR5U1r79k9c.gif

[McNamara That Ghost...]

I might have thought about possibly considering including us as an outside chance in this thread, on Sunday. Not 4th, just ahead of the Spufs.

Not now.

You can be the wildcard though, for us.

[Kano]

We're basically where we were with RVP anyway so I'm not sure it really makes any difference whether he is here or not, thankfully. And yes Tottenham would have over 70 on that basis but the point of mentioning wasn't saying those are the points totals we'll both end up with but just to give a marker we'll be somewhere around that region.

We finished a point above them after being 12 points behind, that's the key part of last season. We don't need a run of what would be 13 in a row a la 01/02, we're talking on a much smaller scale than that. We'll get to at least 19 wins I am sure, as that is what we have always achieved and until we don't, I'm going to keep thinking that we will.
which is what i meant also, that if we're basing it on current form then spurs would still be above us. i'm not suggesting we'll finish miles behind either but it'll take a bigger effort than i think we can manage from now until the end to achieve that.

i'm not even suggesting 13 year in a row or anything similar as that would be completely ridiculous but a good 5 or 6 that i do not see us achieving. historically under wenger we suffer a burnout somehow and the worry is that is still pending - the champs league will have a big say on when that occurs i fear.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

The point was that it's not a sudden burst of confidence that Letters is showing, the points total we're likely to amass is going to be somewhere in the region of what we need. It wasn't the point that I was making any conclusions on current form between the two sides (how current is current?) just that it's not unreasonable to think we will finish ahead of them.

I don't think we'll need to win five or six in a row, I don't see either team doing that, our best winning runs are four and both of those came a while ago in the season. I don't think burnout will be an issue, I'm not sure how that would even manifest itself. We might have the Champions League but Tottenham still have the Europa League and AVB will definitely want to win that.

[Letters]

Where do you get 70 points from?

In the last 5 seasons the 5th place team have got the following number of points: 65, 62, 67, 63, 65
To finish 4th you need to finish above 5th, obviously so at no point in the last 5 years would you have needed 70 points to finish 4th.
Our goal-difference is pretty good so most likely we'd only need the same points as the 5th place side to finish above them.

Our 'usual lazy performances' have seen us only 4 points off Spurs. At this stage last year we were 7 points behind, and that was after we'd played them twice so that 6 pointer could no longer help us.

In April we should make up some ground when Spurs have:

13/04 Chelsea (A) (we have Norwich at home)
20/04 City (H) (we have Fulham away)

Our next game is Utd at home where we'll probably drop points but I don't understand why you think 4 points with 12 games left is such an insurmountable gap.

I don't have a sudden boost in confidence, neither do I think all is lost. We have a decent enough chance of catching them but it's by no means certain.

[Fist of Lehmann]

To finish 4th you need to finish above 5th

Have you ever considered a career in television punditry?


20/04 City (H) (we have Fulham away)

Or record at Chicken Cottage is crap though.

[Letters]

If in the next 12 we do what we have in the previous 12, we'd be on 68 I think.
That would have been good enough for 4th every year since 2000 - couldn't be arsed looking back further than that.

[Özil's Panoramic View]

I thought about including 3rd place, but I think the Chavs, though being led by an utter goof, will have just about enough wind left in their sail to consolidate that position.

I'm no Ach though, so there is a very strong possibility of what I think will happen being completely off.

[Letters]

Was just comparing this season with last at this stage:

2011/2012: P26 W14 D4 L8 F53 A37 Pts46

2012/2013: P26 W12 D8 L6 F50 A29 Pts44

We had won more games at this stage last year and scored a few more goals but not as many as you might think, this year the goals are being spread around more and we're not far off last year's tally. We only had 2 more points at this stage last year.

[Fist of Lehmann]

How far behind Spurts were we at this stage?

[Letters]

How far behind Spurts were we at this stage?

7. And we'd already had both NLDs so had no six pointers to try and make up ground (although this year we do have one and it's away where, being realistic, we're unlikely to win).

[She Wore A Yellow Ribbon]

my biggest worry is that they are winning games they'd normally have drew last season.

they've certainly stepped it up a notch. whether they can maintain it through the big games coming up is another question.

[-Xs-]

They will drop points. Problem is, so will we. If we have a good run from here to the end of the season then I think we will finish above them, but our seasons form doesn't bode me with confidence we can do that

Maybe our best shot is to stick 11 men on the goal line every game and see if we can fluke a champions league win Chelsea style.

[LDG]

We won't finish above the ****s. Accept it. Serious.

[Özil's Panoramic View]

We won't finish above the ****s. Accept it. Serious.

I really despair. We've long given up being competitive, and consigning the scums to forever in our shadows ranks high among the tad bit of things left in which we can take some solace.

Guess Thurdays might soon become a high traffic day on GW, and by extension other gooners forums.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

my biggest worry is that they are winning games they'd normally have drew last season.

they've certainly stepped it up a notch. whether they can maintain it through the big games coming up is another question.

I think this is your perception affecting what is actually the truth. They've drawn this season in the same kind of games they drew last season.

[Letters]

This time last year Spurs had 53 points (W16 D5 L5). Right now they've got 48 (W14 D6 L6).
I'm not sure how that's 'stepping up a notch'.

Arsenal have 2 fewer points than at this stage last year (W14 D4 L8 last year, W12 D8 L6 this)

[cricketsi]

Bale gets injured, 4th place is in the bag :pray:

[GP]

I heard Oscar Pistorious was hoping to get Bale.

[cricketsi]

Don't see why Spurs would want shot of him though?

[Nayan]

they have a paper thin squad and a nasty run-in. They will beat us this weekend but we will still finish above them