Aston Villa v Arsenal 24/08/24 1730

[The Wengerbabies]

Must win

[Mac76]

It's pretty simple really, if Zin starts this game Bailey will have him on toast and they'll win for sure

If Timber is still injured and the Italian not ready then it should be Kiwior who's played there, while he's not an LB at least he has good basic defending skills

[Mac76]

Anyway 3-0 Watkins hatter

[Letters]

I hope we win, tbh.

[HCZ_Reborn]

It’s time to bring out that awful stat, which is our poor powers of recovery away from home when we concede the first goal under Arteta

In 96 away games, we have conceded the first goal 25 times, and lost 18 of those games with only three wins and four draws

Then again our recovery at home isn’t much better, 8 wins and 2 draws from 24 games where we’ve conceded the first goal


Which makes for 11 wins 6 draws and 32 defeats when we concede first. A record that states that if we concede first, we lose two thirds of the time.

[HCZ_Reborn]

In the same period of time, Man City have won 13 drawn 8 and lost 15


Liverpool have won 23, draw 17 and lost 24


Spurs have won 22, drawn 8 and lost 35


Chelsea have won 13, draw 10 and lost 37

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Jesus injured again apparently. :lol:

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

The stats above are horrible and reveals a lot about Arteta.

To think that even Chelsea, yes this Chelsea side that has gone through a gazillion managers, is better than us when it comes to coming back from a deficit is shocking.

I hate to say it again, but if we had strikers we could rely on, it probably wouldn't be that hard to get back into games.

Maybe Arteta will figure it out after he signs his new contract and has spent 10 years here delivering on AW's dream of a "trophy" that was promised, GOT style of course.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Of course like all stats they can be misleading, and show it from another perspective out of the last 38 away games we took the lead in 28 of those games….winning 24 drawing 3 and losing 1. Which then shows how near on impossible it is for other teams to get back in games against us once we’ve taken the lead

Also we had Auba in the side for 13 of the 25 away games cited and still lost 8 times

In regards to Chelsea, their recovery rate is 13 wins from 60 and ours is 11 from 48 which is identical in terms of percentages.

And they’ve gone behind first 31 times since the start of 2022/2023 season and lost all but nine of those games (4 wins, 5 draws)

We’ve gone behind 18 times in that same period and our record is 5 3 10.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Also it doesn’t tell you much about the opposition we are playing, Spurs for example conceded the first goal in 9 of their 19 home games last season. This includes games against all three relegated teams, as well as against us and Man City.

[HCZ_Reborn]

The key stat away from home is whether we score a goal in the first half

Last two seasons, 23 times in the first half away from home we managed to get a goal and had 18 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat

Compare that to when we didn’t score in the first half of games - 7 wins 2 draws 6 defeats (although only 5 of those 15 games we failed to get a goal in the second half)

[HCZ_Reborn]

Speaking of terrible records coming from behind. United away, conceded the first goal 16 times on the road last two seasons lost all but three (1 win, 2 draws)

[Mac76]

Jesus injured again apparently. :lol:

could be a blessing in disguise, hopefuly that will strengthen our resolve to buy another attacking player

[HCZ_Reborn]

could be a blessing in disguise, hopefuly that will strengthen our resolve to buy another attacking player

I think we need to buy someone just to add to the squad depth, the question is who

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

Of course like all stats they can be misleading, and show it from another perspective out of the last 38 away games we took the lead in 28 of those games….winning 24 drawing 3 and losing 1. Which then shows how near on impossible it is for other teams to get back in games against us once we’ve taken the lead

Also we had Auba in the side for 13 of the 25 away games cited and still lost 8 times

In regards to Chelsea, their recovery rate is 13 wins from 60 and ours is 11 from 48 which is identical in terms of percentages.

And they’ve gone behind first 31 times since the start of 2022/2023 season and lost all but nine of those games (4 wins, 5 draws)

We’ve gone behind 18 times in that same period and our record is 5 3 10.


At the risk of ruining a match thread, I don't think there is anything misleading here. Since Arteta got here we have prioritised defending over everything else, not necessarily a bad thing seeing where Emery left us, though there is an argument to make that it has strangely become an unhealthy obsession that seeps out in every aspect of the club (e.g. recruitment). IIRC besides Fulham and Lens, all the games we lost last season were because we could not respond to not taking the lead. As good a defence might be( and ours has been great), you cannot build a trophy winning side on the idea you expect to take the lead in every single game. Recovery is essential.

Looking at your stats, in the 49 games we lost the lead, we recovered in 35% of them. Citeh recovered in 58%, Liverpool in 63%, Spuds in 46% and Chelsea in 38%. Assuming the stats you posted are all EPL games, we recovered 27% of the available points (39 out of 147). Citeh recovered 44%, Liverpool 45%, Tottenham 38% and Chelsea 27% ( they are actually higher than us as I had to round ours up).

We have no business imitating a poorly coached/managed Chelsea side. Recovery is an essential part of winning DNA, especially in knockout tournaments as successful Madrid and Liverpool sides have routinely proven.

[Mac76]

At the risk of ruining a match thread, I don't think there is anything misleading here. Since Arteta got here we have prioritised defending over everything else, not necessarily a bad thing seeing where Emery left us, though there is an argument to make that it has strangely become an unhealthy obsession that seeps out in every aspect of the club (e.g. recruitment). IIRC besides Fulham and Lens, all the games we lost last season were because we could not respond to not taking the lead. As good a defence might be( and ours has been great), you cannot build a trophy winning side on the idea you expect to take the lead in every single game. Recovery is essential.

Looking at your stats, in the 49 games we lost the lead, we recovered in 35% of them. Citeh recovered in 58%, Liverpool in 63%, Spuds in 46% and Chelsea in 38%. Assuming the stats you posted are all EPL games, we recovered 27% of the available points (39 out of 147). Citeh recovered 44%, Liverpool 45%, Tottenham 38% and Chelsea 27% ( they are actually higher than us as I had to round ours up).

We have no business imitating a poorly coached/managed Chelsea side. Recovery is an essential part of winning DNA, especially in knockout tournaments as successful Madrid and Liverpool sides have routinely proven.

A candidate for Post Of The Year :clap:

[HCZ_Reborn]

At the risk of ruining a match thread, I don't think there is anything misleading here. Since Arteta got here we have prioritised defending over everything else, not necessarily a bad thing seeing where Emery left us, though there is an argument to make that it has strangely become an unhealthy obsession that seeps out in every aspect of the club (e.g. recruitment). IIRC besides Fulham and Lens, all the games we lost last season were because we could not respond to not taking the lead. As good a defence might be( and ours has been great), you cannot build a trophy winning side on the idea you expect to take the lead in every single game. Recovery is essential.

Looking at your stats, in the 49 games we lost the lead, we recovered in 35% of them. Citeh recovered in 58%, Liverpool in 63%, Spuds in 46% and Chelsea in 38%. Assuming the stats you posted are all EPL games, we recovered 27% of the available points (39 out of 147). Citeh recovered 44%, Liverpool 45%, Tottenham 38% and Chelsea 27% ( they are actually higher than us as I had to round ours up).

We have no business imitating a poorly coached/managed Chelsea side. Recovery is an essential part of winning DNA, especially in knockout tournaments as successful Madrid and Liverpool sides have routinely proven.

But again they can be misleading because a) there is a big gulf in results between 2019 and the end of the 2022 season


49 wins

19 draws

31 defeats



And the last two seasons continuing into this one


55 wins

13 draws

11 defeats


It’s clearly not just about being defensive either when in those 77 games we have scored 181 goals

In those games we have gone behind 18 times and recovered to get some kind of result 8 (I agree I think it should be better) but I think it’s also worth bearing in mind that in those games we’ve scored the first goal 57 times.

So I really don’t think it’s a case of us playing too defensively, our recovery rate is akin to that of City in the last couple of seasons who like us rarely go behind to begin with

The fact is our recovery rate was just as poor under Wenger and we definitely had a more attacking philosophy. I think there was a stat where we went ten years without winning a game away from home where we were behind at half time


I’m no fan of Arteta, I think we’ve spent too much on defenders but I use these stats to show we’ve got a clear area of improvement. I don’t think it’s as simple as just buying a striker though.

[HCZ_Reborn]

So just looking now and starting from Wenger’s first game in charge right up to the amount of games that Arteta has managed, Arsenal’s recovery record was 10 wins, 12 draws and 27 defeats. So not really fantastically better either.

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

It's definitely not as simple as just buying a striker but you definitely lessen your chances from coming back from a deficit if you don't have a decent one that can stand up to the added pressure of going a goal (or two) down and putting the chances we inevitably create away.

Not wanting to go down memory lane, I do remember AW's successful sides easily coming back either twice in a game or even from two goals down (didn't this happen like twice against Boro or so). Even the more recent sides that he coached that weren't that great still had that ability (don't forget Liverpool 4- Arshavin 4). I'm sure if I check, Emery's sides were still able to do this to ie. the last regime our forwards actually looked menacing.

Anyway, lets just keep our fingers crossed that Villa doesn't take the lead again today..it'll be a shame if Emery beats him 3 times in a row using the same trick.

[HCZ_Reborn]

It's definitely not as simple as just buying a striker but you definitely lessen your chances from coming back from a deficit if you don't have a decent one that can stand up to the added pressure of going a goal (or two) down and putting the chances we inevitably create away.

Not wanting to go down memory lane, I do remember AW's successful sides easily coming back either twice in a game or even from two goals down (didn't this happen like twice against Boro or so). Even the more recent sides that he coached that weren't that great still had that ability (don't forget Liverpool 4- Arshavin 4). I'm sure if I check, Emery's sides were still able to do this to ie. the last regime our forwards actually looked menacing.

Anyway, lets just keep our fingers crossed that Villa doesn't take the lead again today..it'll be a shame if Emery beats him 3 times in a row using the same trick.

Erm I’m looking at games purely where we concede the first goal in a game

The Arshavin game at Anfield, we scored the first goal, and in fact were only behind once during the game


We actually gave away the lead three times in that game at 1-0, 3-2 and 4-3


We also came back from 3-0 down against West Ham under Arteta to draw 3-3

Came back from two nil down against Chelsea and when Chelsea twice took the lead against us despite playing the majority of the game with ten men.


You can always find examples of where we’ve come back in games under any coach


But under Wenger there were also loads of games where we conceded first like in the opening five minutes of a game and despite all the huffing and puffing couldn’t break sides down

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

So just looking now and starting from Wenger’s first game in charge right up to the amount of games that Arteta has managed, Arsenal’s recovery record was 10 wins, 12 draws and 27 defeats. So not really fantastically better either.

Thats 29% of points and more significantly (in a time when you won the league with less points) we recovered in 45% of games.....IMO that's definitely much better.

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

Erm I’m looking at games purely where we concede the first goal in a game

The Arshavin game at Anfield, we scored the first goal, and in fact were only behind once during the game


We actually gave away the lead three times in that game at 1-0, 3-2 and 4-3


We also came back from 3-0 down against West Ham under Arteta to draw 3-3

Came back from two nil down against Chelsea and when Chelsea twice took the lead against us despite playing the majority of the game with ten men.


You can always find examples of where we’ve come back in games under any coach


But under Wenger there were also loads of games where we conceded first like in the opening five minutes of a game and despite all the huffing and puffing couldn’t break sides down

Is that the way the stat works. Shouldn't be how many times you've been behind?

[HCZ_Reborn]

Is that the way the stat works. Shouldn't be how many times you've been behind?

The stat is usually first goal conceded yes. Not many games where the lead changes hands between teams several times in a game

[HCZ_Reborn]

Timber in for Zinchenko

First start for the Dutchman in over a year

[The Wengerbabies]

https://i.ibb.co/9twpbs5/Screenshot-from-2024-08-24-16-51-20.png

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Onana, Tielemans, McGinn, Bailey, Rogers, Watkins.
Subs: Gauci, Diego Carlos, Maatsen, Nedeljkovic, Barkley, Buendia, Jaden, Ramsey, Duran.

Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Partey, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Havertz.
Subs: Ramsdale, Zinchenko, Kiwior, Calafiori, Jorginho, Nelson, Nwaneri, Trossard, Nketiah.

[HCZ_Reborn]

https://i.ibb.co/9twpbs5/Screenshot-from-2024-08-24-16-51-20.png

Is that from Google? They usually have a bit of a rum interpretation of how we set up


I would say you’d have partey sitting in front of the defence with Rice on the left and Odegaard on the right of central midfield

[The Wengerbabies]

Is that from Google? They usually have a bit of a rum interpretation of how we set up


I would say you’d have partey sitting in front of the defence with Rice on the left and Odegaard on the right of central midfield

Yes Google.

I agree Partey will be in the middle.

[HCZ_Reborn]

This is our 30th Premier league visit to Villa Park

Our record there stands at 14 wins 9 draws and 6 defeats


Our overall Premier league record against them is 31 wins, 14 draws and 13 defeats

They’ve done the league double over us 3 times, we’ve done the league double over them 8 times

[Mac76]

Timber starts :good:

[Mac76]

Timber takes out Onana :lol:

[Mac76]

Zin looking really pissed off :haha:

[Mac76]

Partey with another poor ball forward

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Good save from Martinez off Saka a few minutes ago.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Vila players dropping like flies.

[Mac76]

Vila players dropping like flies.

good new tactic of ours, taking out all the opposition team :good:

[McNamara That Ghost...]

What a miss for Watkins!

[HCZ_Reborn]

Fucking hell Gabriel up to the same nonsense as Saliba last week

[Mac76]

Watkins :lol:

how did he miss?

[Mac76]

0-0 HT

pretty evenly matched though Watkins really should have scored and Martinez did well to stop Saka

really hope we sign Merino, he's got to do better than Partey

Martinelli still not at his best, would like to see Trossard on 55 or 60 mins

[McNamara That Ghost...]

0-0 HT. Awful. :lol:

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Important to hit send if you want to post a message I find.

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

Well, no surprises here, we're lucky to still be in this and I'd be more than pleased if we can leave here with a point.

Raya and Saka, been the only players worth talking about and Havertz and Martinelli continue being disappointing. TBH even Captian Marvel hasn't been that great either and Timber.....well lets just say he's going to need a lot more time playing.

I pray we can leave here with a point but even it ending up going that way depends on us scorin first IMO. 3 points looks like a real stretch here.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Incredible from Raya.

[Mac76]

Raya double save

ED - actually single save but well done all the same

[Marc Overmars]

This has 1-0 Villa win written all over it

[Mac76]

we need Trossard soon to have any hope of scoring

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Stinker from Martinelli.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

TROSSARD!!!!

[Mac76]

Leo! Leo! Leo!

[Mac76]

we need Trossard soon to have any hope of scoring

:bow:

[McNamara That Ghost...]

0-2 Partey!!

[Marc Overmars]

PARTEY!!

Get the fuck in

[Mac76]

2-0 :lol:

[Marc Overmars]

I don’t know why I keep doubting this team, must be all the PTSD of the past but this is a very different animal to the limp dick teams we’ve had before.

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Odegaard. :haha:

[dostoy]

It's a Part-ey!!!!!!!!!

[Mac76]

Califiori on :popcorn:

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Saliba. :bow:

[Mac76]

Saka assaulted, but no card as usual

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Barkley. :lol:

[McNamara That Ghost...]

Villa 0-2 Arsenal, FT!

Get in! :bow:

[Marc Overmars]

Fantastic win. Nice to avenge last seasons results against Villa.

[Mac76]

Arsenal :bow:

Villa :haha:
Emery :haha:
Martinez :haha:
Brummies :haha:
Jeff Lynne :haha:
Peaky Blinders :haha:
Ozzy Osbourne :haha:

[HCZ_Reborn]

Don’t forget Tom Hanks

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

Still can't believe we won that but if Raya keeps on with these kind of MOTM performances, maybe dreams can come true.

Thanks to Trossard for making it look easy as usual and the biggest surprise was to see Partey keep it on target :d

Quite unusual to see Watkins without his cheeky grin but lets hope this kind of result means we'll stop giving Villa to much credit and go after them properly next time.

Arteta's "how much pain can I take" footie wins this duel.

[Marc Overmars]

I thought Trossards lack of a celebration was a bit…unnecessary. Arteta said he is a bit upset at not starting but hopefully this doesn’t turn into anything else and he continues to do his talking on the pitch.

In fairness to him though, he has proven to be far superior than Martinelli. So I get the frustration because he’s scored so many vital goals for us.

It’s probably his lack of pace that Arteta is looking at when picking the team.

[Mac76]

I thought Trossards lack of a celebration was a bit…unnecessary. Arteta said he is a bit upset at not starting but hopefully this doesn’t turn into anything else and he continues to do his talking on the pitch.

In fairness to him though, he has proven to be far superior than Martinelli. So I get the frustration because he’s scored so many vital goals for us.

It’s probably his lack of pace that Arteta is looking at when picking the team.

We can't afford to have this version of Martinelli on the left for 60 mins against Spuds and Citeh, so Trossard has to start v Brighton and stay there for the forseeable

[21_GOONER_SALUTE]

I thought Trossards lack of a celebration was a bit…unnecessary. Arteta said he is a bit upset at not starting but hopefully this doesn’t turn into anything else and he continues to do his talking on the pitch.

In fairness to him though, he has proven to be far superior than Martinelli. So I get the frustration because he’s scored so many vital goals for us.

It’s probably his lack of pace that Arteta is looking at when picking the team.

Well I didn't read that much into his celebration but if he is getting upset at this, even the blind couldn't argue with him with the kind of form and composure Martinelli shows in the final third.

I hate defending Arteta, but during the match I kind of understood why he starts Martinelli over Trossard in games like this.

If you watched closely you'd see that Martinelli covered Timber's ass effectively quite a few times. He does the same thing with Zinchencko. Trossard doesn't even come close to being as effective in covering his defender, neither in winning the ball back.

The question is, is it better to start the game trying to win with Trossard and then bring on Martinelli to defend a hopefull lead? Arteta tried it a few times last season and IIRC the results were mixed.

IMO (and I've come to this slowly), I actually think Leo is better at taking advantage of tired weakened defenders. My main gripe with Arteta is that he plays Martinelli for too long when its clear he is having no effect at all in the attack. Leo should have come on instantly the 2nd half started. I mean anyone who has never watched us would have thought the only reason Trossard was coming on was because Emery made his subs first (and then Arteta was reminded of the need to make a sub). I don't think that was the case and he was always going to bring on Trossard to hopefully steal a lead.

Anyway, with Arteta refusing to get a quality striker, he's going to need to learn to kiss Leo's ass and make him understand he is quite integral to this team.