Will We Finish Top 4

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Originally Posted by McNamara That Ghost...

If we hadn't won, we wouldn't have gained two points on them.

Putting it down to pure luck is silly because that kinda means there can be no discussing or analysis about where we're going wrong - if luck is the main factor.

Spurs won 5-0 against Newcastle when the Redknapp England talk was rife and after the court case. They did a Spurs because they're Spurs.

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I didn't put it down to luck to be fair, people posted on here and said we were awful and were lucky (not my words).

It's just strange how events seems to conspire and we end up with 4th, we were miles behind Spurs after the defeat to them (everyone thought we were out of it) and then Bale got injured and they've had a bit of a mare since then. It's not like we've suddenly started playing amazingly well and swept all our opponents aside either.

I pointed out Wenger mentioned the run yesterday (which I knew he would at some point as he always does as proof that we're a top side and don't need much), but despite the results it's not been champagne football from and in form team.

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Originally Posted by Arse n Wonga

I didn't put it down to luck to be fair, people posted on here and said we were awful and were lucky (not my words).

It's just strange how events seems to conspire and we end up with 4th, we were miles behind Spurs after the defeat to them (everyone thought we were out of it) and then Bale got injured and they've had a bit of a mare since then. It's not like we've suddenly started playing amazingly well and swept all our opponents aside either.

I pointed out Wenger mentioned the run yesterday (which I knew he would at some point as he always does as proof that we're a top side and don't need much), but despite the results it's not been champagne football from and in form team.

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Maybe not on this instance but you have before.

It's not strange at all because again, we went on a winning run after losing that game. If you do that, it makes it look like the luck has fallen in to place. Just like in 08/09 with regards to Villa, or indeed last season. If we don't win our games we aren't in a position to take advantage of what happens in any run-in to any team in any league.

It's not been champagne football but we aren't a champagne team, we're rose water. You get rose water performances.

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Originally Posted by McNamara That Ghost...

Bankers. :lol:

No such thing in this league.

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http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...sSao4msz1e_JJw

Worked through the BBC predictor results, we get 5th losing out on 4th to Chelsea on goal difference (both on 72 points) <_< :ilt:

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Originally Posted by Arse n Wonga

I didn't put it down to luck to be fair, people posted on here and said we were awful and were lucky (not my words).

It's just strange how events seems to conspire and we end up with 4th, we were miles behind Spurs after the defeat to them (everyone thought we were out of it) and then Bale got injured and they've had a bit of a mare since then. It's not like we've suddenly started playing amazingly well and swept all our opponents aside either.

I pointed out Wenger mentioned the run yesterday (which I knew he would at some point as he always does as proof that we're a top side and don't need much), but despite the results it's not been champagne football from and in form team.

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Some games in a season you get lucky, others you're unlucky. Over the course of a season these things roughly even out.

I posted above the stats above of our recent run. That can't all be luck although we have rode our luck in some games. It's not been champagne football, no, but at the business end of the season it's all about results and we've been getting them. Anyone else on that run and you'd praise them for grinding out results, we do it and you dismiss it as luck.

As for closing the gap on Spurs. We were 7 points behind Spurs after they beat us, they then lost 2 in a row which helped us close the gap. The games were Fulham at home and Liverpool away and Bale played in both. Bale only missed one league game which they drew, that was Everton at home which was never a gimme. So no, they haven't had a 'mare' since Bale got injured. Again, if Arsenal had lost 2 games like that you'd have said we'd bottled it. Spurs do it and it's 'events' and you try (inaccurately) to blame it on Bale's injury

I see no problem with Wenger mentioning our run, it has been a very good run which has kept us in contention of a top 4 finishing. It's not 'events', it us getting results when we needed to. I really have no idea if we'll finish top 4 this year, if we do it'll say something about the quality of the PL (which I think we all know is pretty low this year) but it won't be luck.

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Originally Posted by McNamara That Ghost...

Bankers. :lol:

No such thing in this league.

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Apart from our board.

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Originally Posted by Letters

All games are big games at the business end of the season all you've done is cherry pick some poor results. Two of those are against sides who are clearly better than us, the other two are sides who are much closer to us in ability. Spurs away was always going to be a defeat, we've not won away against a top side all season because we're not at that level any more. Everton at home was a disappointment but we played well enough and dominated most of the game, we lacked a cutting edge and a top class striker but we all knew that.

I'm fairly confident (if that's the right word) that we'll lose on Sunday vs Utd, that's not us bottling it, that's us losing to a far better side than us. In the run in we've been beating the sides we 'should' be beating, that's given us a chance.

Agree with a lot of the rest of your post but cherry picking some poor results against good sides doesn't really demonstrate your point.

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I'm not cherry picking results. I'm picking the results against our closest rivals in the race for a top 4 spot. Any sort of success in any of these games would have made a big difference to the standings.

Looking at all the crunch matches.

Arsenal 0-0 Everton (1 pt)
Tottenham 2-1 Arsenal (0 pt)
Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich (CL)
Arsenal 0-1 Blackburn (FA CUP)
Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal (0 pt)
Arsenal 0-2 Man City (0 pt)
Bradford 1-1 Arsenal (Bradford win 3-2 on penalties) (LC)
Everton 1-1 Arsenal (1 pt)
Arsenal 5-2 Tottenham (3 pts) - Our only win against our rivals this season, vs 10 men
Man Utd 2-1 Arsenal (0 pt)
Arsenal 1-2 Chelsea (0 pt)
Man City 1-1 Arsenal (1 pt)

Trophies available: 4 / Trophies winnable: 0
Points available: 27 / Points won: 6 (it will be 30/6 after the Utd loss)

In contrast:

Robin van Persie - 22 points gained from his goals, Man Utd walk the PL

When people say, well Walcott has 88 goals and Giroud has 327 goals plus 900 assists so he must be good - where were their goals and assists when it really mattered? Nowhere. We're only in the race for 4th spot because the quality of the teams in this league has plunged dramatically. This has hidden a stunning lack of performance that wouldn't be acceptable at any other big club (and hasn't been as we have seen). The board and the manager can talk all the shit they want but the results speak louder. In this crappy league we MIGHT grab a CL place but it's only useful for the money it will pile into the club's bank account. We'll be easy meat for any decent continental outfit.

I still have a degree of sympathy for Wenger, having to build a team out of the shit we have. But that sympathy wanes when he then digs to the very bottom of the sewer and hauls up Giroud and Walcott and Gervinho. Our season was over the moment we let RvP go (and Utd won the league at the same moment). The results thereafter were a formality. That's why I highlight these games because these are the games where quality makes the difference, maybe not on a one-off but over a season.

We're just fortunate that the spuds and chavs are shite too.

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Originally Posted by Arse n Wonga

I didn't put it down to luck to be fair, people posted on here and said we were awful and were lucky (not my words).

It's just strange how events seems to conspire and we end up with 4th, we were miles behind Spurs after the defeat to them (everyone thought we were out of it) and then Bale got injured and they've had a bit of a mare since then. It's not like we've suddenly started playing amazingly well and swept all our opponents aside either.

I pointed out Wenger mentioned the run yesterday (which I knew he would at some point as he always does as proof that we're a top side and don't need much), but despite the results it's not been champagne football from and in form team.

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Yesterday wasn't about luck. The defence hung on pretty well, I wouldn't say they played well but they managed to keep a 10 man Fulham from getting a more than deserved draw. The real factor yesterday was metal attitude. As soon as we sniffed an advantage our game collapsed. We were the team that looked a man short, and in fact we were because Walcott and Giroud were on the pitch most of the game. The only slice of luck we enjoyed, which was huge, was Giroud getting sent off.

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Originally Posted by Niall_Quinn

I'm not cherry picking results. I'm picking the results against our closest rivals in the race for a top 4 spot. Any sort of success in any of these games would have made a big difference to the standings.

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You say closest rivals and then include Utd, Bayern and City in there? Make up your mind. Our closest rivals are Spurs, Everton, Fulham etc.

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Originally Posted by Niall_Quinn

Yesterday wasn't about luck. The defence hung on pretty well, I wouldn't say they played well but they managed to keep a 10 man Fulham from getting a more than deserved draw. The real factor yesterday was metal attitude. As soon as we sniffed an advantage our game collapsed. We were the team that looked a man short, and in fact we were because Walcott and Giroud were on the pitch most of the game. The only slice of luck we enjoyed, which was huge, was Giroud getting sent off.

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Some good points made in your various posts, mate. I think we'll sneak 4th - but even ignoring the other issues, sneaking 4th every year (and we have habitually 'sneaked it' for years) is a sad indictment on a club that has clearly, clearly lost its way. It feels humiliating, whatever we say about the money available to the competition. The EPL sucks this year - yet Manure - with a proper winners attitude has smashed it open, while we filed what I agree is the poorest team ever under Wenger. We used to expect to win. Now our hearts are in our mouths against Norwich, Fulham.

Spurs lack consistency, but what worries me is that they have a bold, hungry manager who is capable of changing games when needed. This is why it feels like they are on the up. We feel like we are floundering - and the sad thing is that it feels more basic than simply buying better players.

We are not shite, relative to the performances around us - but given that Chelsea are suffering from managerial changes; Citeh have yet to build a team that isn't just mercenary and AVB is only in his second full season - our club needs to take a long look at itself.