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28-04-2024, 10:53 AM
Letters

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn

Expectation is based on the money we’ve spent I’ve consistently stated this

The way we’ve spent money certainly raises expectation, as did last season. Last year’s title challenge was unexpected, this year we do expect more. I guess where we differ is I believe we’ve met our expectations and you don’t. But your metric seems to be “still in with a chance on the last day” which is very specific. Especially as you previously set the 1st May so it feels like a bit of a goalpost shift. There are plenty of indications of the progress we’ve made this season.

Quote:

The simple point I’ve been making over and over again is that if we can’t get the average points total that teams have won over the past twenty years to win the league than we have nothing to say about City…nothing.

Which I dealt with in my previous post. That average is skewed by the last 7 years where City have been at an insane level. And Klopp raised Liverpool to a high enough level to push them. And there were a couple of other exceptional seasons too. I don’t accept that’s the new normal.

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Success or failure is determined by fine margins, not just in football but in all sport. If we can’t push city right to the end now when they haven’t particularly had their best season what makes you think we can do it next season.

I keep hearing that City have been below par. They’ve had a few injuries. And yet they’re looking like they could do the double again. And they were a penalty shootout away from being back in the CL semi-finals. If that’s them being not at their best then yes, it is difficult to see how we can ever beat them. Liverpool only did it once and that was when they went completely mental and basically achieved the level of perfection you claim not to expect but your words tell a different story.

Quote:

It was a collapse. We lost control of the title race and went out of the champions league. It’s weird to look at it in any other way.

:lol: That’s a ridiculous definition of a collapse and you have a very glass half empty view.
We were never in control of the title race. At no point did anyone make us favourites because of our harder run in. It was very briefly in our hands but as I outlined to NQ, that doesn’t make you favourites. We lost one game - having won every single league game in 2024 bar City away. And we went out of the CL to a side you predicted would win the thing. It was a very narrow defeat over two legs too. By your definition we collapse every year, as does every team unless they win the treble. And we picked ourselves up and kept winning. To compare that to last season where we got 3 points from 12 to go from being in control of the title race to as good as out of it is ludicrous.

There’s been clear progress this year. It may not be enough to win the title in which case we try and strengthen further and go again.
28-04-2024, 11:13 AM
HCZ_Reborn

By definition if you are top of the table you are in control of the title

Because if you win your games it doesn’t matter what anyone else does

It’s not shifting goalposts at all, it’s saying if we are still in contention in May, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be fighting to the last game of the season, if we are still in contention after today those minimum expectations have just about been met.

I’m not really seeing your argument about the average point accumulation over the last seven years. If we can’t even get the point total that would win us the title on average over the past twenty years then there is simply no argument that City’s spending has affected us.

It’s not really complicated, if we get say 87 points we can maybe argue that we’ve done enough but just been undone by the city machine but that will require a minimum of 4 points against spurs and United, and that we need that again reflects on the points we threw away earlier in the season.

I don’t want Arteta here full stop whatever happens. But that’s completely different from my objective appraisal that if we are still in the title race on May 1st…he’s done just about enough.
28-04-2024, 11:19 AM
HCZ_Reborn

Clear progress?

We need to get seven points from the last four games just to match what we did last season

We have got more clean sheets and possibly may get more goals

But from my point of view, if we win all our games and still don’t win the title that’s slight very slight progress

And arguably for 200 million spent last summer that’s not great at all.
28-04-2024, 04:06 PM
Letters

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn

By definition if you are top of the table you are in control of the title

Well, sure. It was briefly in our hands. But that doesn't make us favourites. We were never favourites. I've explained why.

Quote:

It’s not shifting goalposts at all, it’s saying if we are still in contention in May, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be fighting to the last game of the season, if we are still in contention after today those minimum expectations have just about been met.

Cool. So we good then?

Quote:

I’m not really seeing your argument about the average point accumulation over the last seven years. If we can’t even get the point total that would win us the title on average over the past twenty years then there is simply no argument that City’s spending has affected us.

My point is the average over the last 20 years has been skewed upwards by the last 7 when City's spending pushed them to a level I don't think we've ever seen before in the PL. That's why it's affected us.
The average over the last 7 years is 94 points. That's ridiculous and I don't accept that's the "new normal". It's an unusual period because of City's spending - and to an extent the level Klopp took Liverpool to them which pushed City to get high points totals. The 13 years before that the average was just under 88 points. A total we weren't a million miles away from last season - despite our wobbles - and one we could yet achieve this season.

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It’s not really complicated, if we get say 87 points we can maybe argue that we’ve done enough but just been undone by the city machine but that will require a minimum of 4 points against spurs and United, and that we need that again reflects on the points we threw away earlier in the season.

That seems pretty likely now.

Quote:

I don’t want Arteta here full stop whatever happens. But that’s completely different from my objective appraisal that if we are still in the title race on May 1st…he’s done just about enough.

Yay then? Your objection to Arteta seems a bit personal in a way I've always found a bit weird.
I think the progress is pretty clear. Didn't you elsewhere argue that comparing points across seasons is not valid (I don't really agree, but someone said that).
I think points is a reasonable metric and if we don't exceed last season's then we'll be close. It's the other tests we've passed in the 6 pointers and keeping winning in the run in which makes me think there's more about us this season. If it's not enough then so be it, but we're pushing City a lot harder than we did last year and we've had a pretty decent run in Europe too. There's a reasonable debate I guess about whether it's been enough progress given the money we've spent, but we look a lot more solid this year, more able to handle the pressure. We did nearly shit ourselves today of course but that was in large part due to Raya's error, but for that I don't think Spurs would have got a foothold.
28-04-2024, 05:07 PM
Niall_Quinn

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn

Clear progress?

We need to get seven points from the last four games just to match what we did last season

We have got more clean sheets and possibly may get more goals

But from my point of view, if we win all our games and still don’t win the title that’s slight very slight progress

And arguably for 200 million spent last summer that’s not great at all.

It's massive progress if we do that, given the habitual collapse routine.

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