Of course it’s unprovable, it’s a statement of opinion but what I’m saying to you is, that theres a strong possibility that the reason you see the claim as being no different to one where someone would claim “we’d have won that if Sven hadn’t started with Emile Heskey” is because by your own admission you don’t watch a lot of football. When I say I think it’s not saying were the circumstances different it would have definitely happened that way, it’s saying that’s what I think would have happened.
Just as I think that had John Smith not died, Labour would probably have still got or come near a landslide in 1997. No he wasn’t Tony Blair but people really had just become utterly sick of the Tories and sleaze by then….and Labour had a consistently big poll lead since 1992. Its an unfalsifiable claim of course