Must win
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Must win
It's pretty simple really, if Zin starts this game Bailey will have him on toast and they'll win for sure
If Timber is still injured and the Italian not ready then it should be Kiwior who's played there, while he's not an LB at least he has good basic defending skills
Anyway 3-0 Watkins hatter
I hope we win, tbh.
It’s time to bring out that awful stat, which is our poor powers of recovery away from home when we concede the first goal under Arteta
In 96 away games, we have conceded the first goal 25 times, and lost 18 of those games with only three wins and four draws
Then again our recovery at home isn’t much better, 8 wins and 2 draws from 24 games where we’ve conceded the first goal
Which makes for 11 wins 6 draws and 32 defeats when we concede first. A record that states that if we concede first, we lose two thirds of the time.
In the same period of time, Man City have won 13 drawn 8 and lost 15
Liverpool have won 23, draw 17 and lost 24
Spurs have won 22, drawn 8 and lost 35
Chelsea have won 13, draw 10 and lost 37
Jesus injured again apparently. :lol:
The stats above are horrible and reveals a lot about Arteta.
To think that even Chelsea, yes this Chelsea side that has gone through a gazillion managers, is better than us when it comes to coming back from a deficit is shocking.
I hate to say it again, but if we had strikers we could rely on, it probably wouldn't be that hard to get back into games.
Maybe Arteta will figure it out after he signs his new contract and has spent 10 years here delivering on AW's dream of a "trophy" that was promised, GOT style of course.
Of course like all stats they can be misleading, and show it from another perspective out of the last 38 away games we took the lead in 28 of those games….winning 24 drawing 3 and losing 1. Which then shows how near on impossible it is for other teams to get back in games against us once we’ve taken the lead
Also we had Auba in the side for 13 of the 25 away games cited and still lost 8 times
In regards to Chelsea, their recovery rate is 13 wins from 60 and ours is 11 from 48 which is identical in terms of percentages.
And they’ve gone behind first 31 times since the start of 2022/2023 season and lost all but nine of those games (4 wins, 5 draws)
We’ve gone behind 18 times in that same period and our record is 5 3 10.
Also it doesn’t tell you much about the opposition we are playing, Spurs for example conceded the first goal in 9 of their 19 home games last season. This includes games against all three relegated teams, as well as against us and Man City.
The key stat away from home is whether we score a goal in the first half
Last two seasons, 23 times in the first half away from home we managed to get a goal and had 18 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat
Compare that to when we didn’t score in the first half of games - 7 wins 2 draws 6 defeats (although only 5 of those 15 games we failed to get a goal in the second half)
Speaking of terrible records coming from behind. United away, conceded the first goal 16 times on the road last two seasons lost all but three (1 win, 2 draws)
could be a blessing in disguise, hopefuly that will strengthen our resolve to buy another attacking playerQuote:
Originally Posted by McNamara That Ghost...
I think we need to buy someone just to add to the squad depth, the question is whoQuote:
Originally Posted by Mac76
Quote:
Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
At the risk of ruining a match thread, I don't think there is anything misleading here. Since Arteta got here we have prioritised defending over everything else, not necessarily a bad thing seeing where Emery left us, though there is an argument to make that it has strangely become an unhealthy obsession that seeps out in every aspect of the club (e.g. recruitment). IIRC besides Fulham and Lens, all the games we lost last season were because we could not respond to not taking the lead. As good a defence might be( and ours has been great), you cannot build a trophy winning side on the idea you expect to take the lead in every single game. Recovery is essential.
Looking at your stats, in the 49 games we lost the lead, we recovered in 35% of them. Citeh recovered in 58%, Liverpool in 63%, Spuds in 46% and Chelsea in 38%. Assuming the stats you posted are all EPL games, we recovered 27% of the available points (39 out of 147). Citeh recovered 44%, Liverpool 45%, Tottenham 38% and Chelsea 27% ( they are actually higher than us as I had to round ours up).
We have no business imitating a poorly coached/managed Chelsea side. Recovery is an essential part of winning DNA, especially in knockout tournaments as successful Madrid and Liverpool sides have routinely proven.
A candidate for Post Of The Year :clap:Quote:
Originally Posted by 21_GOONER_SALUTE
But again they can be misleading because a) there is a big gulf in results between 2019 and the end of the 2022 seasonQuote:
Originally Posted by 21_GOONER_SALUTE
49 wins
19 draws
31 defeats
And the last two seasons continuing into this one
55 wins
13 draws
11 defeats
It’s clearly not just about being defensive either when in those 77 games we have scored 181 goals
In those games we have gone behind 18 times and recovered to get some kind of result 8 (I agree I think it should be better) but I think it’s also worth bearing in mind that in those games we’ve scored the first goal 57 times.
So I really don’t think it’s a case of us playing too defensively, our recovery rate is akin to that of City in the last couple of seasons who like us rarely go behind to begin with
The fact is our recovery rate was just as poor under Wenger and we definitely had a more attacking philosophy. I think there was a stat where we went ten years without winning a game away from home where we were behind at half time
I’m no fan of Arteta, I think we’ve spent too much on defenders but I use these stats to show we’ve got a clear area of improvement. I don’t think it’s as simple as just buying a striker though.
So just looking now and starting from Wenger’s first game in charge right up to the amount of games that Arteta has managed, Arsenal’s recovery record was 10 wins, 12 draws and 27 defeats. So not really fantastically better either.
It's definitely not as simple as just buying a striker but you definitely lessen your chances from coming back from a deficit if you don't have a decent one that can stand up to the added pressure of going a goal (or two) down and putting the chances we inevitably create away.
Not wanting to go down memory lane, I do remember AW's successful sides easily coming back either twice in a game or even from two goals down (didn't this happen like twice against Boro or so). Even the more recent sides that he coached that weren't that great still had that ability (don't forget Liverpool 4- Arshavin 4). I'm sure if I check, Emery's sides were still able to do this to ie. the last regime our forwards actually looked menacing.
Anyway, lets just keep our fingers crossed that Villa doesn't take the lead again today..it'll be a shame if Emery beats him 3 times in a row using the same trick.
Erm I’m looking at games purely where we concede the first goal in a gameQuote:
Originally Posted by 21_GOONER_SALUTE
The Arshavin game at Anfield, we scored the first goal, and in fact were only behind once during the game
We actually gave away the lead three times in that game at 1-0, 3-2 and 4-3
We also came back from 3-0 down against West Ham under Arteta to draw 3-3
Came back from two nil down against Chelsea and when Chelsea twice took the lead against us despite playing the majority of the game with ten men.
You can always find examples of where we’ve come back in games under any coach
But under Wenger there were also loads of games where we conceded first like in the opening five minutes of a game and despite all the huffing and puffing couldn’t break sides down
Thats 29% of points and more significantly (in a time when you won the league with less points) we recovered in 45% of games.....IMO that's definitely much better.Quote:
Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
Is that the way the stat works. Shouldn't be how many times you've been behind?Quote:
Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
The stat is usually first goal conceded yes. Not many games where the lead changes hands between teams several times in a gameQuote:
Originally Posted by 21_GOONER_SALUTE
Timber in for Zinchenko
First start for the Dutchman in over a year
Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Onana, Tielemans, McGinn, Bailey, Rogers, Watkins.
Subs: Gauci, Diego Carlos, Maatsen, Nedeljkovic, Barkley, Buendia, Jaden, Ramsey, Duran.
Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Partey, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Havertz.
Subs: Ramsdale, Zinchenko, Kiwior, Calafiori, Jorginho, Nelson, Nwaneri, Trossard, Nketiah.
Is that from Google? They usually have a bit of a rum interpretation of how we set upQuote:
Originally Posted by The Wengerbabies
I would say you’d have partey sitting in front of the defence with Rice on the left and Odegaard on the right of central midfield
Yes Google.Quote:
Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
I agree Partey will be in the middle.
This is our 30th Premier league visit to Villa Park
Our record there stands at 14 wins 9 draws and 6 defeats
Our overall Premier league record against them is 31 wins, 14 draws and 13 defeats
They’ve done the league double over us 3 times, we’ve done the league double over them 8 times
Timber starts :good:
Timber takes out Onana :lol:
Zin looking really pissed off :haha:
Partey with another poor ball forward
Good save from Martinez off Saka a few minutes ago.
Vila players dropping like flies.
good new tactic of ours, taking out all the opposition team :good:Quote:
Originally Posted by McNamara That Ghost...
What a miss for Watkins!
Fucking hell Gabriel up to the same nonsense as Saliba last week
Watkins :lol:
how did he miss?
0-0 HT
pretty evenly matched though Watkins really should have scored and Martinez did well to stop Saka
really hope we sign Merino, he's got to do better than Partey
Martinelli still not at his best, would like to see Trossard on 55 or 60 mins