Euro 2024

[HCZ_Reborn]

Basically the problems England have, are succinctly summed up by the character Terence Fletcher in Whiplash “if you give a retard a calculator, he will use it to try and change the channel on the tv”

[Letters]

I think that's a bit fatalistic
It is, but I'm just a bit jaded by it all. I vaguely remember 86, you can say we woz robbed by the Hand of God, but we might not have won anyway.
But then there was that run in 1990, 1996 and 1998 - 3 occasions where we were arguably better on the night and on each occasion it ended in heartbreak.
Since then it never felt we were that close to a tournament win but then Southgate took us to a World Cup semi-final and now two Euro finals.
That's why I feel over-criticism of him is harsh. It was the first World Cup semi-final since 1990, the first Euros finals ever, the first final on foreign soil ever. He hasn't delivered a trophy but he's gone closer than anyone else in my lifetime. And I may be many things but young is not one of them. I don't accept that's just luck of the draw or having good players. We've had those things before and not gone close.
The final a few years ago "broke" me a bit. I kinda felt that if we can't win a final on home soil with the crowd behind us then we never will. I'd allowed myself to believe we had a chance last night though, although acknowledging we weren't favourites.

It does feel like we're contenders again right now. I do feel we could do with a better manager. I'm just not confident it will propel us to glory. I've seen it all too many times.
I honestly don't care where players play their club football. When they've got the England shirt on I'll support them, even if I have to hold my nose for some of them. I do care about the bad football, the group stage in particular was painful.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong - I hope a new manager comes on and we win the next World Cup and you can all say "see?". I could take that if it meant we'd gone and won the thing. But I fear we will crash and burn again and then it'll be "if only we had a better manager". Rinse and repeat. I've seen it for decades, it wears you down in the end.

[Mac76]

II've seen it for decades, it wears you down in the end.

I get that, the difference for me is i've been emotionally tuned out of England for a decade or more, so I've not been as down when they've come close but failed

But I definitely think a team without Southgate, Vegas, Kane and Tripper is something I could get behind, providing it's a sensible manager who knows how to bring the best out of a team

I'm not sure Potter is capable of doing that, he's more of a mid-table-team guy

Klopp would be great but I dont think he'll go for it

[Letters]

I think what you're saying is...

Wenger In!

:cool:

[HCZ_Reborn]

For me it’s about purely recognising when a national side has four or five world class players in it, and a few more that have the potential to get there

Spain even as far back as 2004 it was obvious there was something there that just needed the finishing touches put on it, same with the Germany team under Joachim Low.


The penalty shootout loss against Italy didn’t bother me because I felt there was something there to build upon. I don’t really get that emotionally involved with England because Arsenal will always be more important to me than the national team.

But now, it feels like the potential we have is being squandered by misplaced loyalty. Nothing is guaranteed, but winners are ruthless. Keeping Southgate is a signal by the FA that winning things isn’t all that important. And to squander a chance to win the World Cup in two years, which for me stands out as being the first time in my life where I genuinely believe we can win the World Cup. And for me would an absolute signal of English mediocrity, the unwillingness to put sentiment aside

[HCZ_Reborn]

In respect of what Letters has said, all I can say is whilst I appreciate that this whole “we would have won if not for X” has been around for decades. The difference is, in the main that boast has carried as much weight as a Spurs fan saying it about their own team. What’s difference this time is that there’s a clear ring of truth about it. I normally wouldn’t listen to anything Alan Shearer says but he spoke a lot about “moments” from this team, and for a moment in that final we did the thing that up until that point in the tournament only Germany had managed, we made them shit themselves….and look ordinary.

It ultimately didn’t work for Germany, but they at least tried. This Spain side played very well but in the annuls of great teams they won’t be remembered. The coach did well to build a team around one world class player and get good football out of them….but Germany found them out and were unlucky not to punish them. We didn’t fucking try and have better players than Germany

[Mac76]

I think what you're saying is...

Wenger In!

:cool:

Yes that was it :lol:

[Letters]

Keeping Southgate is a signal by the FA that winning things isn’t all that important. And to squander a chance to win the World Cup in two years, which for me stands out as being the first time in my life where I genuinely believe we can win the World Cup. And for me would an absolute signal of English mediocrity, the unwillingness to put sentiment aside
An alternative explanation of course is that the FA believe that he is the right person to give us the best chance to win us the World Cup.

You may violently disagree of course, but it's one of those unknowable things.
I don't think we'll win the World Cup in 2 years time. If Southgate is in charge you're going to say "see?", and I'm going to say "we wouldn't have won it with <insert manager here> either". And there will be some back and forth but the honest truth is we'll never really know.
Emery is clearly a good manager but he didn't work out at Arsenal. There are different skills required for club management and national team management. It's not a given that another manager, even if they have a good record elsewhere, would do a good job with England.
I would remind you that you spent a fair amount of time last season saying Arteta should be fired.

I don't think Southgate will win us the next World Cup, but it's not obvious to me that someone else would give us a better chance.

[HCZ_Reborn]

An alternative explanation of course is that the FA believe that he is the right person to give us the best chance to win us the World Cup.

You may violently disagree of course, but it's one of those unknowable things.
I don't think we'll win the World Cup in 2 years time. If Southgate is in charge you're going to say "see?", and I'm going to say "we wouldn't have won it with <insert manager here> either". And there will be some back and forth but the honest truth is we'll never really know.
Emery is clearly a good manager but he didn't work out at Arsenal. There are different skills required for club management and national team management. It's not a given that another manager, even if they have a good record elsewhere, would do a good job with England.
I would remind you that you spent a fair amount of time last season saying Arteta should be fired.

I don't think Southgate will win us the next World Cup, but it's not obvious to me that someone else would give us a better chance.

But again we’ve established the basis for your opinion is based on the emotional impact of hearing silly people saying we should be winning this or that at a time when it wasn’t really remotely feasible. The only time before now we had a realistic prospect of the World Cup was perhaps 2006 and the problem was even then that there were too many teams of a similar or slightly better level. This simply is not the case now.

No I don’t believe they think Southgate is the best person for the job. I don’t think you believe they think that either.


I don’t really see what Arteta has to do with this situation, other than your natural tendency towards conservatism which was on display when it was abundantly clear Wenger should go and you were quite late in realising it. I’m still not convinced Arteta is the right man for the job, at the moment he is achieving slightly less than what he should be given the money he’s spent but has probably done just enough to earn him a stay of execution.

Actually no I take it back, the parallel is there in that I think Arsenal need to be in a place where we are in pole position to potentially dominate if either Ming the Merciless goes (although his ability as a coach is overstated) or City get the punishment that’s long overdue to them. There was a glimmer that the mentality was good enough that we will be ready to take over if either happens, but doesn’t encourage me that we are still pissing about with spending money on defenders when it’s clearly at best a third or fourth order priority

[HCZ_Reborn]

Again it’s a simple proposition, you won’t hear me say we will win the World Cup in two years time with a different coach, the difference is we can win it and there’s no reason why we wouldn’t go in as favourites
Though that’s often a millstone around Brazil’s neck

It’s possible we’ve left it too late, and that the FA should have replaced Southgate after Qatar. Then I think we would have won Euro 2024 and in doing so laid the ground work for the World Cup. That’s not undue arrogance it’s just a reflection of the fact that most other teams weren’t of great quality in Euro 2024 otherwise a team like Spain would have had no business being in the final let alone winning the thing

[HCZ_Reborn]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29327/13178186/gareth-southgate-best-man-for-england-job-despite-euro-2024-final-defeat-says-jamie-carragher

Just as well Carragher works for Sky and not the BBC as this opinion is bad enough to warrant withholding licence fee payment (which is an utter outdated joke anyway but different argument for a different time)
“Im sure he wasn’t telling some players to press and others not to”

First of all, I don’t think anyone can possibly be sure of that. Although most likely he wasn’t given them instructions or drilling the players in team pressing at all….players don’t collectively decide to do stuff like that. It’s a result of confusing or non existent tactical instructions. I’m absolutely sure he wouldn’t have instructed the players to close down the opposition in their own third and stop them from playing out, because at no time did we ever try to do this.

I’m sure he didn’t explicitly tell Foden and Bellingham to get in each others way by trying to perform the same role in the same area of the pitch causing confusion in attacking phases.


If league and champions league winners are playing like championship players throughout much of the tournament. I simply don’t understand how you can conclude it’s anything but the deficiencies of the coach

[Mac76]

I think you're slightly doing Spain down, I get maybe player-for-player others might be better, though I'm not sure who apart from England there's many teams, maybe France although they have big issues in attack - if the best they can come up with is Giroud, Greizman and an injured Mbappe they have problems IMO

that said I do believe it's a team game so part of the art of winning is doing the best with what you have

so when Greece won the Euros, or Denmark, i was perfectly happy for them as they did the very best with what they have

Spain played very well and that's exemplified by the high quality of their goals yesterday and through the tournament - it's no coincidence they won player and young player of the tournament

[HCZ_Reborn]

I think you're slightly doing Spain down, I get maybe player-for-player others might be better, though I'm not sure who apart from England there's many teams, maybe France although they have big issues in attack - if the best they can come up with is Giroud, Greizman and an injured Mbappe they have problems IMO

that said I do believe it's a team game so part of the art of winning is doing the best with what you have

so when Greece won the Euros, or Denmark, i was perfectly happy for them as they did the very best with what they have

Spain played very well and that's exemplified by the high quality of their goals yesterday and through the tournament - it's no coincidence they won player and young player of the tournament

The point is Spain winning this tournament is on a par maybe not so much with Denmark in Euro 92, or Greece in Euro 2004. But certainly with Portugal winning in 2016…it shouldn’t have happened and wouldn’t have if England or France had turned up (A player like Mbappe on form is good enough by himself to be the attacking fulcrum for France)

It’s a suspension of the usual footballing laws of gravity. Though predictable in that both Deschamps and Southgate should have been got rid of by their respective football associations long before this tournament.


It’s not knocking Spain they played very well….but they are quite short in terms of quality of the Italian side that won three years ago let alone the really great teams

[Letters]

Anyway...where were we?

https://x.com/paddypower/status/1812764826600460576

[Mac76]

It’s not knocking Spain they played very well….but they are quite short in terms of quality of the Italian side that won three years ago let alone the really great teams

I'm not sure they're much worse than that Italian side, they're a young team and less experienced and, as you've pointed out both England and Germany weren't far off from beating them, but... they didn't

plus I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those players - Williams and Yamal being obvious examples - go on to play at the biggest clubs - in fact we're in for Williams and I really hope we get him

the only thing I'd say is they're maybe not as strong at the back as Italy, France or Germany when at their best

[Mac76]

Anyway...where were we?

https://x.com/paddypower/status/1812764826600460576

ha, i was thinking earlier about how big our first game of the season will be, to be as consistent as Citeh it's a must-win :lol:

[HCZ_Reborn]

I'm not sure they're much worse than that Italian side, they're a young team and less experienced and, as you've pointed out both England and Germany weren't far off from beating them, but... they didn't

plus I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those players - Williams and Yamal being obvious examples - go on to play at the biggest clubs - in fact we're in for Williams and I really hope we get him

the only thing I'd say is they're maybe not as strong at the back as Italy, France or Germany when at their best

They have only one top player

Ruiz is a good player nothing more, Dani Olmo same


Williams is a player who hasn’t established himself before this tournament despite being 22. Yamal is a wonder kid prospect

Morata is a great big pile of shit. It’s the equivalent of France with Stephane Guivarich up front


That just isn’t the standard you would expect to be enough to win you an international tournament. Yes they have young players but not really in central midfield. Certainly no one who will come near the likes of Rodri, let alone Xavi, Iniesta etc


They’ve done fantastically well, but gravity has to reassert itself and this is as far as they go

[Letters]

But again we’ve established the basis for your opinion is based on the emotional impact of hearing silly people saying we should be winning this or that at a time when it wasn’t really remotely feasible.
The decades of failure have certainly jaded me. And we have had a frankly baffling national mindset that we should be winning these tournaments despite winning 1 in our entire history, and that was at home and required a bit of help from the "Russian" linesman.


No I don’t believe they think Southgate is the best person for the job. I don’t think you believe they think that either.
To misquote A Few Good Men, I'm an educated man, but I'm afraid I can't speak intelligently about the beliefs of the FA.


I don’t really see what Arteta has to do with this situation
It's an example of you spending much of the season saying someone should be booted out before finally agreeing, somewhat grudgingly, that they've done OK. Although from your comments it sounds like you'll be at it again the first time we slip this coming season. Just generally your predictions last season were patchy at best - I'm not saying mine are any better but you seem to have an unwavering confidence in them despite your record. In fact, I just had a look at the start of this thread and you started it with this post:


I don’t get why England are favourites, take away the impediment of Southgate and France have a stronger squad than us (we don’t have any depth in central midfield or defence). I’d like to see us play the attacking quartet of Saka, Foden, Kane and Bellingham….and at least we won’t be plagued with Harry Maguire and Mason Fucking Mount but I think we will do well to get further than the semis.

You backed France to beat Spain in the final, so you obviously rated Spain too. And now you're saying with another manager we would have won it because of how good our squad is. :blink:


other than your natural tendency towards conservatism which was on display when it was abundantly clear Wenger should go and you were quite late in realising it.
This is fair, although I still believe the criticism of Wenger was excessive at times. But he certainly went on too long and I was too patient with him. Part of my reticence was how big an upheaval a new club manager is. It's the same reason I'd be wary of replacing Arteta. I don't think he's a really top class manager but he's built a team who seem to believe in him and disrupting that could set us back. There was clear progress last season, he deserves a chance to build on it.

I don't think replacing an international manager who only works with the players intermittently is anywhere near as disruptive, and I also think that Southgate should go. I don't think he's going to take us any further. But I don't accept it's a foregone conclusion that another manager will. I've been hearing this shit about it being the manager's fault and if only we had a better manager then... for nearly 40 years now. There were times when that was true, but it often wasn't. Robson was nearly booted out after 1988 and then took us to the semi-finals in 1990, the first of the "if only..." trilogy in the 90s.
And I don't believe we'd necessarily have won the Euros under a different manager. As I've highlighted, at the start of this thread you didn't think we would win either and while you do claim Southgate is holding us back, you also cite stronger squads. So why are you now acting like we should have won it?

[HCZ_Reborn]

I said France have a better squad than us, I still kind of think that’s the case because we don’t have a striker on the level of Mbappe and they’ve got more top defenders.

However I was also clear (and said so long before this tournament) that Deschamps had squandered the French potential.

The France-Spain prediction was based on how I worked out how the draw would go…and that did factor in Spain triumphing against an undercooked Germany and a massively overrated Portugal.

And I’m saying that if Southgate had gone in 2022, a better coach would have maybe bridged the gap by finding a centre half partner for Stones, would have had White playing…would have had Trippier no where near the team and would have found a way to utilise the immense talent of Saka, Foden and Bellingham and yes I think that would have been enough to win us the competition, given what I’ve said in the past and continue to say about Didier Deschamps.


Maybe I’m being unfair but by your own admission you don’t want much club football, seeing some of the players England had to work with in the last two years, gives me the opinion that we can and perhaps even should win international tournaments and I can guarantee you that thought has never entered my head in relation to England prior to 2022. When average dross like Henderson and Mason Mount were slowly being phased out in favour of potential superstars like Bellingham, when I’ve seen Saka become a top player for club and country…when Rice has far exceeded the admittedly low expectations I had of him.

What I will say for Spain is that this is a team with an identity, England do not have that because our coach simply lacks the ability to give us one….it may all sound very harsh for someone who has got us to back to back Euro finals but ultimately being a runner up means fuck all…Valencia got to back to back champions league finals…it’s largely relegated to a pub quiz question. There is no guarantee we can win with a different manager but I think there’s enough evidence to guarantee we can’t win with this one.
At the risk of agreeing with Mac, I actually think the person we should go for is Jurgen Klopp. Someone like that I would feel confident in saying…I think we are going to win the next World Cup not just can win it but will win it. I do not expect us to get him, in that event I think Eddie Howe would be the next best bet.

[HCZ_Reborn]

In regards to Arteta, the first few games of last season almost finished me off. Near on gave me a full on nervous breakdown , it was worse than the end days of Emery, worst than the absolute nadir of Wenger….youd have to go back to Bruce Rioch for how bad we were.

Havertz was playing like a literal Spastic, I don’t mean just bad…I mean like someone who had been deprived oxygen to the brain in the womb and affected fine motor control. Playing Partey at right back? If that shit had continued I’d have had to have stepped away or I probably would have suffered a blood clot or something

I’m not going to pretend otherwise, I would have gladly seen Arteta sacked for that in August…fortunately he didn’t stick with this dirge and we only quite bad between September and the end of the year.


As for the rest of the season, I set out the criteria by which Arteta should stay in post and despite my doubt that he could meet those standards he did and fair play to him. He’s still far from allayed my doubts about him.

[Letters]

I said France have a better squad than us, I still kind of think that’s the case because we don’t have a striker on the level of Mbappe and they’ve got more top defenders.

However I was also clear (and said so long before this tournament) that Deschamps had squandered the French potential.
But you predicted them to win :unsure:


And I’m saying that if Southgate had gone in 2022, a better coach would have maybe bridged the gap by finding a centre half partner for Stones, would have had White playing…would have had Trippier no where near the team and would have found a way to utilise the immense talent of Saka, Foden and Bellingham and yes I think that would have been enough to win us the competition, given what I’ve said in the past and continue to say about Didier Deschamps.
OK. But it's a bit of a pointless "prediction", it's possible but unprovable. I'm sceptical given our history, but we'll obviously never know so there's no real point in discussing that. Any more than discussing what will happen in 2 years. Do I think we'll win it with Southgate? No. But I don't think we'll win it with anyone (again, I do base that somewhat on our history) and however we do whether it's Southgate or someone else it's not possible to compare what would have happened had the alternative happened. Obviously if we do get someone else in and win it then I guess that will vindicate your position.


Maybe I’m being unfair but by your own admission you don’t want much club football, seeing some of the players England had to work with in the last two years, gives me the opinion that we can and perhaps even should win international tournaments and I can guarantee you that thought has never entered my head in relation to England prior to 2022.
It's certainly fair to say that I don't watch enough club football to really know how good our squad is compared with other squads. I was impressed with Mainoo this tournament but didn't really have an opinion of him before it. William for Spain was excellent - never heard of him before the tournament. So that's fair. But while the consensus is certainly that we do have a strong squad right now - and most people would agree that Southgate isn't a really top coach - I don't get the sense that many people think that if we had a "better" coach then we'd be sweeping all before us.


There is no guarantee we can win with a different manager but I think there’s enough evidence to guarantee we can’t win with this one.
I'd agree with that and as I've said, I think we should replace Southgate - it's less upheaval than replacing a club manager. I'm just not convinced we'll win the World Cup anyway. Some of that is being so jaded about all the failures down the years. Klopp would be interesting although I'd note that club football and international football are quite different in terms of management. With a club you get to spend every day working with players. And of course you have transfer windows where you can bolster the squad. You can't do any of that at international level. Actually one of the reasons that in some ways I prefer these international tournaments. It feels a bit more "pure" than club football. You can't have some billionaire buy Albania, buy up all the best talent and then have the press jizz themselves when they start to win tournaments. You have the players you have and that's that.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Are you missing the point where I’m saying if Southgate had gone after Qatar I think we would have won. I specifically predicted France to win because Southgate was still here

Whilst you can’t buy up the best talent in international football what you can do, and which is what Spain, France and Germany have done is create a much closer relationship between the clubs and the national team….they set up national academies like Clairfontaine in France and then the clubs take up some of the most promising players from that set up

In terms of talent you of course have it or you don’t, but France, Germany, Spain and Italy all have a population size that is in and around the same as England….therefore if the money is invested early enough you get yourself a larger pool of talent to draw on.

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

Ultimately the best team won, which at least is more than you can say than the defeats against Croatia and Italy previously, where they were undoubtedly opportunities missed. That being said, Spain were still there for the taking. On the one hand they've beaten the likes of Germany, Spain, Croatia, done something no other side has done in winning 7 games in one tournament, but they aren't the Spain of 2008-12.

Southgate has undoubtedly raised our base levels from the lows of Iceland or the fossils of Capello & Hodgson, but there were huge opportunities missed because he clearly doesn't have that.... oomph. I heard someone make the comparison he was the Tim Henman of football which probably isn't too far off. Nice guy, did something no one had done for years/decades, but ultimately either wasn't good enough or missed huge chances.

Onto the team, god I fucking hate Walker. He's fucking shit. He has an ungodly amount of pace which gets him out of trouble, but the reason he has to use his pace so often is because he can't fucking defend. And shock, he was massively out of position for both goals.
Pickford did well, but his kicking was atrocious. The saves he made were standard (the one from Yamal he tipped around the post was decent granted) but he looked shaky on crosses and those punches were awful. And yet again because he's an attention seeking cunt he caused panic going for a ball and backtracking. And he's a cunt.
Kane was clearly fucked. On the one hand it's a shame someone who has been brilliant for so many years seems to fall down at the final hurdle everytime, but ultimately one has to wonder how much of that is on him. You can argue that's not 4/5 huge games he has cost his team because he clearly isn't fully fit. But then you could also argue that is on the manager. But regardless of his performances, the idea of smashing it up to him is one thing, he was still doing an OK job of that, but he had no one near him when he was found. Those few occasions he wasn't dropping deeper than Beckenbauer.
Foden was, yet again, bloody terrible. Bellingham looked knackered and was trying too much. Saka lively but can't be relied on every time. Mainoo a boy who was overawed. Rice I don't think has had a good game all tournament (I know I may get lynched for saying that here). It's all well and good excusing him carrying Trent in midfield (which I agree doesn't work at all unless you're playing a pub team) but when he isn't making simple passes then that's on him. Guehi isn't good enough. He did alright but nothing incredible.

At this point I can't be arsed going through them all, but we looked a different team when we hit with pace, forward instinct and put teams on the backfoot. That meant when the likes of Watkins, Palmer and Saka were combining. Which wasn't for very long at all. Gordon may as well have been on holiday. At 1-1, for about 3 minutes, it looked like we were on the up and could take the initiative. So we sat back and invited Spain back into it. When we had to attack again, at 2-1 down we probably should have scored with that one cleared off the line.

The chance was there and we didn't take it. Credit to Southgate for us being in the position in the first place, better managers than him have not got that far, but it's his aura of mediocrity which has stopped England from taking that final step. Luis Garciaaaa, he drinks sangriaaa.

[Mac76]

In regards to Arteta, the first few games of last season almost finished me off. Near on gave me a full on nervous breakdown , it was worse than the end days of Emery, worst than the absolute nadir of Wenger….youd have to go back to Bruce Rioch for how bad we were.

Havertz was playing like a literal Spastic, I don’t mean just bad…I mean like someone who had been deprived oxygen to the brain in the womb and affected fine motor control. Playing Partey at right back? If that shit had continued I’d have had to have stepped away or I probably would have suffered a blood clot or something

I’m not going to pretend otherwise, I would have gladly seen Arteta sacked for that in August…fortunately he didn’t stick with this dirge and we only quite bad between September and the end of the year.


As for the rest of the season, I set out the criteria by which Arteta should stay in post and despite my doubt that he could meet those standards he did and fair play to him. He’s still far from allayed my doubts about him.

As you now for me it was the folly that was Zinchenko that Arteta massively annoyed me with, but i've had to accept he's learning and has generally built a largely good squad and got them mainly playing well

As long as he sells Zin, Eddie and a few others and gets some good upgrades I'm ready to go agin with Arteta this season

[Mac76]

Ultimately the best team won, which at least is more than you can say than the defeats against Croatia and Italy previously, where they were undoubtedly opportunities missed. That being said, Spain were still there for the taking. On the one hand they've beaten the likes of Germany, Spain, Croatia, done something no other side has done in winning 7 games in one tournament, but they aren't the Spain of 2008-12.

Southgate has undoubtedly raised our base levels from the lows of Iceland or the fossils of Capello & Hodgson, but there were huge opportunities missed because he clearly doesn't have that.... oomph. I heard someone make the comparison he was the Tim Henman of football which probably isn't too far off. Nice guy, did something no one had done for years/decades, but ultimately either wasn't good enough or missed huge chances.

Onto the team, god I fucking hate Walker. He's fucking shit. He has an ungodly amount of pace which gets him out of trouble, but the reason he has to use his pace so often is because he can't fucking defend. And shock, he was massively out of position for both goals.
Pickford did well, but his kicking was atrocious. The saves he made were standard (the one from Yamal he tipped around the post was decent granted) but he looked shaky on crosses and those punches were awful. And yet again because he's an attention seeking cunt he caused panic going for a ball and backtracking. And he's a cunt.
Kane was clearly fucked. On the one hand it's a shame someone who has been brilliant for so many years seems to fall down at the final hurdle everytime, but ultimately one has to wonder how much of that is on him. You can argue that's not 4/5 huge games he has cost his team because he clearly isn't fully fit. But then you could also argue that is on the manager. But regardless of his performances, the idea of smashing it up to him is one thing, he was still doing an OK job of that, but he had no one near him when he was found. Those few occasions he wasn't dropping deeper than Beckenbauer.
Foden was, yet again, bloody terrible. Bellingham looked knackered and was trying too much. Saka lively but can't be relied on every time. Mainoo a boy who was overawed. Rice I don't think has had a good game all tournament (I know I may get lynched for saying that here). It's all well and good excusing him carrying Trent in midfield (which I agree doesn't work at all unless you're playing a pub team) but when he isn't making simple passes then that's on him. Guehi isn't good enough. He did alright but nothing incredible.

At this point I can't be arsed going through them all, but we looked a different team when we hit with pace, forward instinct and put teams on the backfoot. That meant when the likes of Watkins, Palmer and Saka were combining. Which wasn't for very long at all. Gordon may as well have been on holiday. At 1-1, for about 3 minutes, it looked like we were on the up and could take the initiative. So we sat back and invited Spain back into it. When we had to attack again, at 2-1 down we probably should have scored with that one cleared off the line.

The chance was there and we didn't take it. Credit to Southgate for us being in the position in the first place, better managers than him have not got that far, but it's his aura of mediocrity which has stopped England from taking that final step. Luis Garciaaaa, he drinks sangriaaa.

I really don't like Pickford either and if I was a defender in one of his teams I'd hate the way he always blames someone else

I think Rice was just knackered tbh and had to do too much because Southgate couldn't work out who he wanted to play alongside him

Saka always plays in fits and starts, I think he's learnt to do that becuase Arteta refuses to ever rest him

The fact we had to play Walker was down to everyone telling Southgate TAA should play in midfield, so that's where he put him and then we have Johnny Vegas pissing off Ben White and Southgate not having the guts to slap him down

[WMUG]

Don't fancy reading through the thread to reopen wounds so apologies if this has been mentioned, but surely Pickford had to do better for the winner?

He dives out of the spot where the ball ends up to cover a space where the ball was never going to go, because a defender was covering there. Where the ball went was about the only place it could've gone, I don't understand why he moved away.

[Letters]

Are you missing the point where I’m saying if Southgate had gone after Qatar I think we would have won. I specifically predicted France to win because Southgate was still here
That wasn't the only reason:

I don’t get why England are favourites, take away the impediment of Southgate and France have a stronger squad than us
And you were scathing about Dechamps too.

But it's a pointless "prediction". It's unprovable, it's unfalsifiable. The only vindication for your position is if we change manager and we win the next World Cup. The first of those things may happen, the second won't. And that's a prediction we can check in 2 years.

[Mac76]

Don't fancy reading through the thread to reopen wounds so apologies if this has been mentioned, but surely Pickford had to do better for the winner?

He dives out of the spot where the ball ends up to cover a space where the ball was never going to go, because a defender was covering there. Where the ball went was about the only place it could've gone, I don't understand why he moved away.

Yes, he got a lot of praise for some routine punches but I too think he was slow for that one - probably too busy shouting at his defenders

[Mac76]

From Twitter:

When one looks closely at Kane’s goal scoring record for England (66 goals) … The history books will say England’s greatest goal scorer but one has to understand who most of these goals were scored against :-

- Almost 50% (32 Goals) scored against lowly opposition

- San Marino (5)
- Montenegro (4)
- Malta (4)
- Albania (4)
- Bulgaria (4)
- Panama (3)
- Lithuania (2)
- Kosovo (2)
- North Macedonia (2)
- Tunisia (2)

- 33%+ are Penalties (22 goals)

[Letters]

I didn't particularly think that goal was a mistake by him, and overall he kept us in it so I wouldn't unduly criticise him.
I don't think he's really top class though.

[HCZ_Reborn]

That wasn't the only reason:

And you were scathing about Dechamps too.

But it's a pointless "prediction". It's unprovable, it's unfalsifiable. The only vindication for your position is if we change manager and we win the next World Cup. The first of those things may happen, the second won't. And that's a prediction we can check in 2 years.

Of course it’s unprovable, it’s a statement of opinion but what I’m saying to you is, that theres a strong possibility that the reason you see the claim as being no different to one where someone would claim “we’d have won that if Sven hadn’t started with Emile Heskey” is because by your own admission you don’t watch a lot of football. When I say I think it’s not saying were the circumstances different it would have definitely happened that way, it’s saying that’s what I think would have happened.
Just as I think that had John Smith not died, Labour would probably have still got or come near a landslide in 1997. No he wasn’t Tony Blair but people really had just become utterly sick of the Tories and sleaze by then….and Labour had a consistently big poll lead since 1992. Its an unfalsifiable claim of course

[HCZ_Reborn]

From Twitter:

When one looks closely at Kane’s goal scoring record for England (66 goals) … The history books will say England’s greatest goal scorer but one has to understand who most of these goals were scored against :-

- Almost 50% (32 Goals) scored against lowly opposition

- San Marino (5)
- Montenegro (4)
- Malta (4)
- Albania (4)
- Bulgaria (4)
- Panama (3)
- Lithuania (2)
- Kosovo (2)
- North Macedonia (2)
- Tunisia (2)

- 33%+ are Penalties (22 goals)

Now do a comparison against other national sides’ top scorer and who they have scored against

Should be easy enough….without having to go back years. For Spain it’s David Villa, For France it’s Giroud and for Germany it’s Klose

[Letters]

What I’m saying to you is, that theres a strong possibility that the reason you see the claim as being no different to one where someone would claim “we’d have won that if Sven hadn’t started with Emile Heskey” is because by your own admission you don’t watch a lot of football.
That does somewhat affect my ability to assess the strength of our squad against other teams'.
But you literally started this thread saying "I don’t get why England are favourites", and then went on to say it wasn't just because of Southgate you were saying that.
I don't watch much club football but I chat to others who do watch more. No-one I spoke to thought we were going to sweep all before us because of the strength of our squad - a strength you question in your opening post.

[HCZ_Reborn]

That does somewhat affect my ability to assess the strength of our squad against other teams'.
But you literally started this thread saying "I don’t get why England are favourites", and then went on to say it wasn't just because of Southgate you were saying that.
I don't watch much club football but I chat to others who do watch more. No-one I spoke to thought we were going to sweep all before us because of the strength of our squad - a strength you question in your opening post.

I felt France had a stronger squad but I don’t think there was a lot in it , but the point of being a national team coach is that you use qualifiers and friendlies in order to identify players that can form partnerships, find the best players for the best position and create a team that is more than the sum of its parts. I don’t think Deschamps have ever done that for France and yes a better England coach might well have done so having eighteen months to work on what Southgate had left him to work with

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

Southgate has stepped down.



Sent from my M2101K6G using Tapatalk

[Letters]

So it's coming home in 2026 then, right HCZ? ##

[HCZ_Reborn]

Southgate has stepped down.



Sent from my M2101K6G using Tapatalk

Get in!!!

[Marc Overmars]

The right decision, would have been met with all kinds of shit had he chosen to carry on. Respect the work he’s done but it’s definitely time for someone who can get us over the line now with this group.

[Letters]

The right decision, would have been met with all kinds of shit had he chosen to carry on. Respect the work he’s done but it’s definitely time for someone who can get us over the line now with this group.

Agreed.
So the next steps are new manager, honeymoon period, Overexcitement in 2026, failure and round and round we go.

[HCZ_Reborn]

So it's coming home in 2026 then, right HCZ? ##

Well it’s no longer definitely not coming home

[Letters]

Well it’s no longer definitely not coming home

That's a confusing sentence :lol:
Southgate wouldn't have won us the next World Cup.
Spoiler: Nor will the next bloke. I guess we'll talk in 2 years :tiphat:

[HCZ_Reborn]

That's a confusing sentence :lol:
Southgate wouldn't have won us the next World Cup.
Spoiler: Nor will the next bloke. I guess we'll talk in 2 years :tiphat:

I suppose the question is do you think England have the players to win the World Cup. If you don’t think that, then I respectfully disagree but fair enough. But if it’s based on this fatalistic, England will find a way to fuck it up because that’s just what we do.

I’d just say that

England in this century have won both the Cricket and Rugby World Cup, the UK has produced serial winners in multiple sports. There’s no reason why football should be any different.

However I do think there’s a mentality deficit especially amongst supporters who clutched their pearls over criticism of Southgate for getting us to two Euro finals. It’s the reason why the FA wanted him to stay on and it’s putting it simply a mentality of losers prepared to accept second best. If that doesn’t change then this could be an impediment to us, but will see.

[Letters]

I suppose the question is do you think England have the players to win the World Cup.
I'd say we have the players to be contenders, I don't think we're hot favourites.
I don't really think our achievements in other sports are that relevant. Cricket and Rugby are both far less competitive - as in, there isn't the depth of quality that there is in a properly global sport like football.


However I do think there’s a mentality deficit especially amongst supporters who clutched their pearls over criticism of Southgate for getting us to two Euro finals
Like all these things, the discussion becomes so polarised. Southgate definitely deserves criticism for the way we played in the Euros, we were very negative in a way we don't need to be with our players. But he got us to two finals in a row - the first finals in our history in the Euros. To dismiss that as just blind luck with easy draws or to say we've suddenly got this exceptional squad who should be sweeping all before us is a bit silly. He deserves some credit for that. It's a bit like Poch and Spurs, basically did well but didn't land a trophy. But the next bloke didn't at Spuds either and I don't think the next bloke will with England. We certainly have a squad which should be contenders now but historically we've always failed even when we have in theory been good enough.

[Mac76]

England in this century have won both the Cricket and Rugby World Cup.

The Cricket World Cup was daylight robbery which makes the Russian linesman seem liike an irrelevance

The New Zealand team should have staged a sit-in or suchlike until the decision was overthrown

[HCZ_Reborn]

I'd say we have the players to be contenders, I don't think we're hot favourites.
I don't really think our achievements in other sports are that relevant. Cricket and Rugby are both far less competitive - as in, there isn't the depth of quality that there is in a properly global sport like football.


Like all these things, the discussion becomes so polarised. Southgate definitely deserves criticism for the way we played in the Euros, we were very negative in a way we don't need to be with our players. But he got us to two finals in a row - the first finals in our history in the Euros. To dismiss that as just blind luck with easy draws or to say we've suddenly got this exceptional squad who should be sweeping all before us is a bit silly. He deserves some credit for that. It's a bit like Poch and Spurs, basically did well but didn't land a trophy. But the next bloke didn't at Spuds either and I don't think the next bloke will with England. We certainly have a squad which should be contenders now but historically we've always failed even when we have in theory been good enough.

No it’s not just blind luck it’s also having the players. Southgate’s best job was arguably getting to the semi finals of 2018 because we were most definitely not contenders then and although it was disappointing to lose to Croatia, there was a sense of achievement. You didn’t have him getting criticised for not winning it, because every sensible fan knows even if we’d got to the final we’d have had our arses handed to us by France

Euro 2020 similarly there wasn’t abuse against Southgate for failing to beat Italy, there was over magnification of a few racist trolls targeting Saka (who by the way has shown such exceptional character in coming back from that)


World Cup 2022 I don’t think the expectation was on us to win but the patience was starting to run thin with predictably timid tactics, the game against France we actually had them on the rack for big parts of the second half and then we retreat within ourselves again.


Euro 2024….i think you know as well as I do that it was more than just losing the final, it was the utter compost mulch that passed for football. I think if not for that and if we’d actually gone for it against Spain like Germany did and still lost I think there would have been far less criticism


Do I agree with fans chucking plastic cups at him? No but unfortunately there are always morons. None of the pundits who were frustrated with the tactics were in anyway abusive or disrespectful. But ultimately getting to two finals means nothing if you can’t identify where progress is likely to come from. Jogi Low took over from Klinnsman in 2006 and managed two semis and a final (where they were outplayed by Spain) before finally getting it right in 2014….he was given that time because it was clear that there was a clear identity, a purpose, a plan with what he was trying to do. They were bringing through exciting players, they played without fear and they looked like a team not a group of individuals.


None of this was evident with Southgate….its not an easy thing to do, I think the people who said he established a good atmosphere in the England camp probably do have a point, I think Southgate probably did help Saka a lot after that penalty miss which could have been damaging for a player his age. But even then that comes with caveat, he absolutely comes out of the Ben White fracas looking weak.


As for your opinion that England shouldn’t be considered favourites for any given tournament be it the one just gone or the World Cup. Well I think it depends who is brought in and how they are able to make best use of the players they have. I think France as I said earlier have ended their cycle which failed to establish the dominance it should have, Spain have outperformed but ultimately footballing gravity will reassert itself and Germany have the right man in Nagelsmann they are just slightly further behind us in their transition. Argentina don’t impress me, and Brazil seem to be going through a crisis of confidence (although last time that happened they ended up winning the World Cup in Japan and South Korea)

So what I say is the platform is there for us to go into the tournament as favourites feasibly, it’s just a case of whether we grasp it

[HCZ_Reborn]

And I say this aware of false dawns. But I don’t think I have ever felt that we were likely to win a tournament. The first tournament I was old enough to form opinions on as to who might win it was Euro 96. Germany were the favourites for that tournament, and it being played in England nudged us up to second favourites. My experience of that tournament was people felt it was sad it ended like it did for us, but no anger against Venables I think most people wanted him to stay on as coach. And I think most people felt sorry for Southgate for missing that pen (well not so much missed but saved by Kopke) the way they’d felt for Stuart Pearce six years earlier (and the way most people who aren’t utter dickheads felt sorry for Saka)

And then looking at the other tournaments that followed on from this, this seems to reflect the general feeling at the time

France 98 - the abuse Beckham got was fucking outrageous, and I think Diego Simeone proved as a player and a coach to be a horrible piece of work. But ultimately never expected us to win because it was clear that Glenn Hoddle was a half wit.


Euro 2000 - Typical Keegan really, good going forward…hopeless at the back. Disappointed to go out at the group stage but I think everyone knew the French were going to win this.


2002 - Japan/S Korea - As I recall Argentina were the favourites and didn’t even get out of the group. The match between us and Brazil was a bit of a fizzle after the Ronaldinho fluke goal, but it wasn’t really crushed dreams


2004 - Euro 2004 - Equally not sure there was any strong belief that we were going to win this. The assumption was that despite going out at the group stage of the World Cup that France would win this tournament.


2006 - Germany - Now this is probably the only tournament where it was spoken about that this could be our time. Beckham was playing his last tournament before retiring from international duty, last tournament for Sven. But ultimately we were a good team in amongst a load of other good teams - France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Argentina and Brazil


2010 - S Africa - I get that Capello was brought in to turn us into winners but the expectation was that the winner would be Brazil or Spain.

2012 - Euros - Capello gone off in a huff, Woy was appointed as the safety first option and actually the appraisal when we went out in the quarters to Italy was that we’d done well given the upheaval prior to the tournament

2014 - Brazil - Our name never once mentioned amongst list of potential winners, lots of calls for Woy to go after group stage exit


2016 - France - Expected that we’d do better than we did, but equally expected that we’d get to the 1/4s and come up against a superior French team…as it turns out Iceland beat us

[Mac76]

And I say this aware of false dawns. But I don’t think I have ever felt that we were likely to win a tournament. The first tournament I was old enough to form opinions on as to who might win it was Euro 96. Germany were the favourites for that tournament, and it being played in England nudged us up to second favourites. My experience of that tournament was people felt it was sad it ended like it did for us, but no anger against Venables I think most people wanted him to stay on as coach. And I think most people felt sorry for Southgate for missing that pen (well not so much missed but saved by Kopke) the way they’d felt for Stuart Pearce six years earlier (and the way most people who aren’t utter dickheads felt sorry for Saka)

And then looking at the other tournaments that followed on from this, this seems to reflect the general feeling at the time

France 98 - the abuse Beckham got was fucking outrageous, and I think Diego Simeone proved as a player and a coach to be a horrible piece of work. But ultimately never expected us to win because it was clear that Glenn Hoddle was a half wit.


Euro 2000 - Typical Keegan really, good going forward…hopeless at the back. Disappointed to go out at the group stage but I think everyone knew the French were going to win this.


2002 - Japan/S Korea - As I recall Argentina were the favourites and didn’t even get out of the group. The match between us and Brazil was a bit of a fizzle after the Ronaldinho fluke goal, but it wasn’t really crushed dreams


2004 - Euro 2004 - Equally not sure there was any strong belief that we were going to win this. The assumption was that despite going out at the group stage of the World Cup that France would win this tournament.


2006 - Germany - Now this is probably the only tournament where it was spoken about that this could be our time. Beckham was playing his last tournament before retiring from international duty, last tournament for Sven. But ultimately we were a good team in amongst a load of other good teams - France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Argentina and Brazil


2010 - S Africa - I get that Capello was brought in to turn us into winners but the expectation was that the winner would be Brazil or Spain.

2012 - Euros - Capello gone off in a huff, Woy was appointed as the safety first option and actually the appraisal when we went out in the quarters to Italy was that we’d done well given the upheaval prior to the tournament

2014 - Brazil - Our name never once mentioned amongst list of potential winners, lots of calls for Woy to go after group stage exit


2016 - France - Expected that we’d do better than we did, but equally expected that we’d get to the 1/4s and come up against a superior French team…as it turns out Iceland beat us

Beckham deserved everything he got

The Ronaldinho goal wasn't a fluke

[HCZ_Reborn]

Beckham deserved everything he got

The Ronaldinho goal wasn't a fluke

Chants of “your wife’s a whore and we hope your kid dies of cancer?” And effigies hanging from lampposts. If you think that behaviour is not outrageous it says nothing good about you.


And yes it absolutely was a fluke. It was a cross…Seaman was badly positioned but the intent was clearly to aim the ball for someone in a blue shirt to get their head on it

[Mac76]

Chants of “your wife’s a whore and we hope your kid dies of cancer?” And effigies hanging from lampposts. If you think that behaviour is not outrageous it says nothing good about you.


And yes it absolutely was a fluke. It was a cross…Seaman was badly positioned but the intent was clearly to aim the ball for someone in a blue shirt to get their head on it

OK yes maybe that stuff re Bekcham did go just a little bit too far :lol:

but no Ronaldinho meant it, it's just a shame some people don't have the imagination or understanding of what a very good player at the top of their game can actually do - if it had been the other way round would all the England fans be calling it as a fluke? I think not

[HCZ_Reborn]

OK yes maybe that stuff re Bekcham did go just a little bit too far :lol:

but no Ronaldinho meant it, it's just a shame some people don't have the imagination or understanding of what a very good player at the top of their game can actually do - if it had been the other way round would all the England fans be calling it as a fluke? I think not

Players have scored goals from all kinds of wonderful angles that defy description it’s not the lack of imagination that makes me assert that it was a fluke, it’s knowing what a cross is, seeing the goal scorers reaction of incredulity before suddenly trying to pretend that he meant it. As I said to you in the other thread, Flukes are a big part of life. Brazil were better than us and deserved to win, a fortuitous goal doesn’t detract from that. People compare it to what Nayim did for Real Zaragoza against Seaman, now that was both fortunate and intended….fortunate in that Seaman could and should have kept it out

[Letters]

As for your opinion that England shouldn’t be considered favourites for any given tournament be it the one just gone or the World Cup. Well I think it depends who is brought in and how they are able to make best use of the players they have.
The thing for me is though while I'd agree we should be contenders, I don't think it's clear that we are favourites. As I said above when you mentioned Cricket and Rugby world cups, there's more depth of quality in football. And there's more depth in international tournaments than at club level. Who is going to win <insert top European league here> this coming season? You could probably narrow that down to two clubs with reasonable certainty in most of the top leagues. There's a very clear gap in quality between the top few and "the rest" in most leagues. It's less clear in international football. There are a group of countries who are more credible winners and I'd agree we have the quality to be in that group. But the last 6 World Cups have seen 6 different winners, there isn't a "City" who are clear favourites. And in Cup football where it's knockout after the group stage, it's harder to predict. We were a penalty shootout away from winning in '96.

[Letters]

People compare it to what Nayim did for Real Zaragoza against Seaman, now that was both fortunate and intended….fortunate in that Seaman could and should have kept it out
In the wake of that I was on what was an early version of an Arsenal messageboard, the web technology didn't then really exist to do something like this site, so it was literally just an email address which you wrote to and it relayed the message to everyone on the list. Someone could then reply to the email and that's how you had a sort of conversation.
Anyway...I got into quite a heated argument about this with the owner of a website called ArseWeb (run by this guy, looks like it doesn't still exist http://www.rupertward.co.uk/)
The conclusion I remember was it was both luck and skill.
The skill part is if I tried a shot like that then it would be a one in a million shot, Nayim being a professional footballer drastically lowers those odds, but it was still a bit of a fluke and I bet he couldn't do it again. And as you say Seaman probably shouldn't have been caught out from that distance <_<

[HCZ_Reborn]

The thing for me is though while I'd agree we should be contenders, I don't think it's clear that we are favourites. As I said above when you mentioned Cricket and Rugby world cups, there's more depth of quality in football. And there's more depth in international tournaments than at club level. Who is going to win <insert top European league here> this coming season? You could probably narrow that down to two clubs with reasonable certainty in most of the top leagues. There's a very clear gap in quality between the top few and "the rest" in most leagues. It's less clear in international football. There are a group of countries who are more credible winners and I'd agree we have the quality to be in that group. But the last 6 World Cups have seen 6 different winners, there isn't a "City" who are clear favourites. And in Cup football where it's knockout after the group stage, it's harder to predict. We were a penalty shootout away from winning in '96.

A penalty shootout against Germany from going into the final, a team that hasn’t lost a penalty shootout since 1996. We also needed a penalty shootout to beat Spain who should have had a penalty and who also scored a goal that was wrongly ruled out for offside.

But my point was with Euro 96 is that it was still hope rather than expectation. We definitely didn’t let ourselves down in that tournament, our penalties against Germany were good in the main….Southgate’s penalty wasn’t great but it wasn’t terrible it was a good save by Kopke.

Would we have beaten the Czech Republic had we done what no other team since Czechoslovakia in 1976 had done and beaten them on penalties? Quite probably.


I understand fine margins, being favourites doesn’t guarantee you the World Cup. But in all honesty the strength in depth is not there in international football.
Plus Since we won in 1966, and with the exception of 2010 the competition has been passed around the same five teams (France, Germany, Italy, Brazil and Argentina). The next World Cup is two years away and we know most likely the winner will come from a pool of four to six teams and that’s being generous. It’s not the European championship where you get wildcard winners (Denmark, Greece and Portugal)

The reason I’m saying there’s a good chance we will be favourites is because it’s likely or at least highly possible that we will have the strongest squad in 2026. We will have world class players who are still relatively young, players that were very young and who have become world class and we will have good strength in depth. Now unless there are a lot of players coming through for other teams that im unaware of I don’t think that’s necessarily the case for other teams. I think Germany could become contenders but I think it may be a World Cup too early for them.

[Mac76]

Southgate's gone! :clap: :yippee: :patrice: :dance: :cheers:

[Letters]

Have you seriously only just seen that news? :lol:

[HCZ_Reborn]

Southgate's gone! :clap: :yippee: :patrice: :dance: :cheers:

Only six hours ago

[Letters]

But my point was with Euro 96 is that it was still hope rather than expectation.
My memory is different. Maybe it was hope before the tournament. But that game against the Dutch, that Gazza goal vs Scotland. It just felt like it was our year and, to coin a phrase, coming home. The nation was swept up in a wave of optimism. I am certain (again, unprovable) that we would have won the tournament had the penalty shootout gone for us.


But in all honesty the strength in depth is not there in international football.
It's deeper than in club football though where as I said in most of the top leagues you could be fairly confident that it will be one of two teams winning it. Club football didn't used to be like that but money.
You cite 4 to 6 - that's probably right, I'm not saying anyone can win it. But it's not 1 or 2 teams, and we've not won it since '66 so I'd raise an eyebrow at us being in that group at all let alone installed as favourites. Your reasoning for this is squad quality and depth. I'm just sceptical that ours is enough better than the rest that we'd be clear favourites. Contenders maybe. I guess we'll see in 2 years time at which point when we fail I'll be saying "we'd have won it had Southgate still been in charge" ;)

[Mac76]

Have you seriously only just seen that news? :lol:

Yes, no-one had posted here, this is where I get all my news :shrug: :lol:

[HCZ_Reborn]

My memory is different. Maybe it was hope before the tournament. But that game against the Dutch, that Gazza goal vs Scotland. It just felt like it was our year and, to coin a phrase, coming home. The nation was swept up in a wave of optimism. I am certain (again, unprovable) that we would have won the tournament had the penalty shootout gone for us.


It's deeper than in club football though where as I said in most of the top leagues you could be fairly confident that it will be one of two teams winning it. Club football didn't used to be like that but money.
You cite 4 to 6 - that's probably right, I'm not saying anyone can win it. But it's not 1 or 2 teams, and we've not won it since '66 so I'd raise an eyebrow at us being in that group at all let alone installed as favourites. Your reasoning for this is squad quality and depth. I'm just sceptical that ours is enough better than the rest that we'd be clear favourites. Contenders maybe. I guess we'll see in 2 years time at which point when we fail I'll be saying "we'd have won it had Southgate still been in charge" ;)

Most of the time it really is just one or two teams…..the sports media will always default to saying Brazil will win which I think is mostly because the last time they didn’t make Brazil the favourites they did win it.

Bookmakers take a slightly more methodical approach

Brazil and Argentina were the two teams spoken about as likely winners last time (as even in winter the assumption was the climate would favour a South American team). France were I think the bookies favourites (just about) in 2018 and 2014 it was a three way toss up between Germany, Brazil and Argentina.


The Bookmakers made us favourites for the Euros because they felt we had the strongest team, now that differed from my appraisal but that was the consideration it was based on. It’s likely they will consider we have the strongest team in two years time….i think the two other most likely contenders will be Brazil or Germany…but Brazil are in a bit of a funk at the moment….but they would I suspect be our nearest challengers (if they get their act together, and of course we get our act together…Southgate going by itself solves nothing but it’s definitely a positive step in the right direction)

[HCZ_Reborn]

Yes, no-one had posted here, this is where I get all my news :shrug: :lol:

I know you’re being sarcastic but that would explain a lot :lol:

[Letters]

Most of the time it really is just one or two teams…..
I found some pre-tournament odds for the Euros
England 7/4, Spain 4/1, Germany 9/2, France 9/2, Netherlands 7/1, Portugal 9/1

So according to the bookies we were favourites but not clear, runaway favourites.

While we're here, I had a look at the odds for the next World Cup - I appreciate we are a couple of years out and this will change. But right now it's:
Brazil 6/1, France 13/2, England 7/1, Spain 9/1. Germany 10/1, Argentina 10/1

So that's 6 countries and at the moment there's no clear favourite and the odds are fairly close between those 6.

Compare and contrast with the PL.

https://www.goal.com/en-gb/betting/premier-league-winner-odds/blt90cc841424e85506

Two very clear favourites, Man City 11/10, Arsenal 15/8, then a fair leap to Liverpool at 7/1. The rest, you might as well not bother. It's not the same dude.

[HCZ_Reborn]

I found some pre-tournament odds for the Euros
England 7/4, Spain 4/1, Germany 9/2, France 9/2, Netherlands 7/1, Portugal 9/1

So according to the bookies we were favourites but not clear, runaway favourites.

While we're here, I had a look at the odds for the next World Cup - I appreciate we are a couple of years out and this will change. But right now it's:
Brazil 6/1, France 13/2, England 7/1, Spain 9/1. Germany 10/1, Argentina 10/1

So that's 6 countries and at the moment there's no clear favourite and the odds are fairly close between those 6.

Compare and contrast with the PL.

https://www.goal.com/en-gb/betting/premier-league-winner-odds/blt90cc841424e85506

Two very clear favourites, Man City 11/10, Arsenal 15/8, then a fair leap to Liverpool at 7/1. The rest, you might as well not bother. It's not the same dude.

Two years away is far too far away for odds to be anything more than quite nebulous. Brazil for example won one match from four at the Copa America, and in Conmebol qualifying have one point from the last four matches losing to Colombia, Uruguay and Argentina. Yes they’ll qualify for the tournament but they are in a bit of a state right now. And as you say the odds are largely evenly spread out but two years out and it will change as the tournament gets nearer the teams are qualified and the groups are drawn so you can get a good idea of how the tournament may map out


And in Mathematical and betting terms 7/4 is much shorter odds than 4/1…so it’s not Nadal at the French open you can bet your mortgage on it odds (and given we lost it’s just as well) but those are the odds of a team fancied more than any other.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Anyway another thing we’ve not spoken about is who do we want as England’s next manager

I said a couple of weeks ago my preferred man would be Jurgen Klopp however I simply don’t see that as realistic. I think we should make enquiries but I’d expect them to be rebuffed. I don’t think it would go down well in Germany, anymore than it would here an Englishman managing the German national team.

With that in mind, the clear and obvious person for me is Eddie Howe. He’s had a difficult season with Newcastle but he has turned them into a side where no one wants to go to St James Park. And even if a bit iffy away from home, they do score a lot of goals.

[Letters]

Two years away is far too far away for odds to be anything more than quite nebulous.
Hence me looking up the pre-tournament Euros odds which showed the same sort of thing. We were in the group of teams who were expected to be contenders but there weren't 2 teams which had fairly short odds and then the rest nowhere as it is in the PL.
It's not the same. There's no debate about that, I'm just looking at numbers.

[Mac76]

At least we've you two to entertain us until the next World Cup :popcorn: :lol:

[HCZ_Reborn]

Hence me looking up the pre-tournament Euros odds which showed the same sort of thing. We were in the group of teams who were expected to be contenders but there weren't 2 teams which had fairly short odds and then the rest nowhere as it is in the PL.
It's not the same. There's no debate about that, I'm just looking at numbers.

Except it isn’t the same, there’s a big difference between being rated at 7/4 and the next team being rated 4/1…especially in a tournament of 24 teams

[Letters]

Except it isn’t the same, there’s a big difference between being rated at 7/4 and the next team being rated 4/1…especially in a tournament of 24 teams

Arguing with numbers :bow:

Dude, gun to your head who is going to win the PL this year? I'll give you two choices. You know what the answer is.
Before the Euros you couldn't have done that so confidently. There's probably a group of teams you think could win it, but there just isn't a clear favourite or two in these tournaments.
That isn't an opinion.

Here's the point. England may be "favourites" for the next World Cup, but all that will mean is they will be one of a group of teams who people think could win it, there will most likely be 4 or 5 of those. People may think us most likely, but it's not going to be clear. It's not so meaningful as in the PL where there are two favourites and if you're going to bet on anyone else then you might as well chuck your money in to the fire now.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Arguing with numbers :bow:

Dude, gun to your head who is going to win the PL this year? I'll give you two choices. You know what the answer is.
Before the Euros you couldn't have done that so confidently. There's probably a group of teams you think could win it, but there just isn't a clear favourite or two in these tournaments.
That isn't an opinion.

You’re the one comparing it to the premier league odds not me

And you’re the one arguing with numbers


When the bookies are predicting there is twice as much chance for England to win as the nearest team, no it’s not Man City odds but it’s a clear favourite not just one amongst loads.

[Letters]

When the bookies are predicting there is twice as much chance for England to win as the nearest team, no it’s not Man City odds but it’s a clear favourite not just one amongst loads.
OK. You're going to be putting a big bet on then? :)

[HCZ_Reborn]

OK. You're going to be putting a big bet on then? :)

Big bet on what, these are odds for a tournament that’s just happened

All im saying is that come 2026 if we get our act together there’s no reason why bookmakers won’t be offering similar odds at the World Cup. Which even then guarantees nothing

[Letters]

Big bet on what, these are odds for a tournament that’s just happened
Oh I see. But you said you didn't understand why we were favourites and you said France had a better squad.
It's almost like you do understand that being "clear favourites" is a bit meaningless in the context of an international tournament.
Almost.

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

Arguing with numbers :bow:


No silly, you're Letters.

Sent from my M2101K6G using Tapatalk

[Letters]

I see what you did there <_<

[HCZ_Reborn]

Oh I see. But you said you didn't understand why we were favourites and you said France had a better squad.
It's almost like you do understand that being "clear favourites" is a bit meaningless in the context of an international tournament.
Almost.

Yes thought they have superior squad (albeit not a lot in it) and that Southgate was a significant drag factor on our chances

Bookies determine odds in order to avoid losing money and they use a far more scientific method to determine their odds than I would to form my opinion, agree that being favourites is deterministic of nothing but my point is it won’t be based on nothing if we are considered favourites. It doesn’t mean we are going to win, it means that in my view under the right circumstances we will have a better chance to win than at any time in the last sixty years.

And the reason I wanted Southgate gone, is given that I do think this it seems awful to waste that opportunity with a negative, defensive minded coach who has reached his high water mark. Whether the guy who comes in can improve upon this ultimately remains to be seen.

I feel I’ve adequately explained why I think the way I do about this World Cup, I feel I’ve convincingly set out that this isn’t just breathless optimism as I wouldn’t ever have previously backed us to win anything. It might not happen and it goes without saying you’re free to differ with me. But as I say given my tendency if anything to be incredibly downbeat on the chances of Arsenal a team I infinitely care more about the national side, we have the opportunity I feel to go into that tournament as ahead of the pack which I agree guarantees nothing, but suggests amongst sports experts and statisticians that there’s a reason we are capable that goes beyond blind optimism

[HCZ_Reborn]

So on the subject, an interesting question (well interesting to most, probably not our resident Liverpool fan)


If you had the choice that Arsenal would win the league in one of the next two seasons (only one, and not the champions league either) or that England would win the World Cup in 2026 which would you choose?


I didn’t have to think about this, it’s Arsenal every time especially given twenty years have passed since our last league title

[Marc Overmars]

So on the subject, an interesting question (well interesting to most, probably not our resident Liverpool fan)


If you had the choice that Arsenal would win the league in one of the next two seasons (only one, and not the champions league either) or that England would win the World Cup in 2026 which would you choose?


I didn’t have to think about this, it’s Arsenal every time especially given twenty years have passed since our last league title

Arsenal every single day. Forget about a title I’d even prefer to see us win a Carabao Cup if offered the choice between that or an England World Cup win.

I want England to do well but I’m just not as emotionally invested in international football to care enough about it. I haven’t sat down to watch an England friendly or qualifier in years so England only really exists to me when a tournament comes around. If Arsenal fail it bothers me tremendously but if England fail I just think oh well on to the next one.

England’s hardcore support tends to come from fans of smaller clubs and in particular from the lower leagues which is of no surprise.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Arsenal every single day. Forget about a title I’d even prefer to see us win a Carabao Cup if offered the choice between that or an England World Cup win.

I want England to do well but I’m just not as emotionally invested in international football to care enough about it. I haven’t sat down to watch an England friendly or qualifier in years so England only really exists to me when a tournament comes around. If Arsenal fail it bothers me tremendously but if England fail I just think oh well on to the next one.

England’s hardcore support tends to come from fans of smaller clubs and in particular from the lower leagues which is of no surprise.

Oh I think if it was the fa cup or carabao cup I’d choose England. We have plenty of fa cups, and the carabao cup is a nothing trophy.

[Marc Overmars]

Oh I think if it was the fa cup or carabao cup I’d choose England. We have plenty of fa cups, and the carabao cup is a nothing trophy.

It’s more about the amount of joy I’d extract from those scenarios. Everything with England is short lived but those moments for us I’d savour.

[HCZ_Reborn]

It’s more about the amount of joy I’d extract from those scenarios. Everything with England is short lived but those moments for us I’d savour.

I am half tempted to go out to the US for the World Cup, not even necessarily for England but I have family in California who live in Santa Clara where the 49ers stadium is and will be a World Cup match venue and may look to get tickets to see a game

[Marc Overmars]

Would love to go to a World Cup but I’m just waiting for it to be hosted somewhere closer to home. USA is very accessible though so that may have to be considered.

I’ve been to a couple of Euros and the football fever is really fun to experience. My eldest is starting to take a real interest now too so I’ll 100% be taking him to as many games as I can in 2028.

[HCZ_Reborn]

Would love to go to a World Cup but I’m just waiting for it to be hosted somewhere closer to home. USA is very accessible though so that may have to be considered.

I’ve been to a couple of Euros and the football fever is really fun to experience. My eldest is starting to take a real interest now too so I’ll 100% be taking him to as many games as I can in 2028.

Ah yes, Euro 2028 I think is quite a coup for us. And to be quite honest given the utter corruption of FIFA (I’m sure UEFA is as well, but FIFA are on a whole other level) I don’t want us to host the World Cup any time soon given the gross kickbacks to FIFA delegates, white elephant stadiums etc that would be involved.


Pity Spurs are going to be one of the host venues and we aren’t….but overall still think it will be a great summer event

[Letters]

I feel I’ve adequately explained why I think the way I do about this World Cup
I don't have a particular issue with the thought that we could be favourites - or certainly one of them. I just don't think in international tournaments being favourites is as meaningful or clear as it in in some other sports, or in other areas of football. Partly because of the knockout nature of much of the competitions, that lends itself to shock results in a sport where there can often be fine lines. We were a marginal VAR call away from a Coventry/City FA Cup Final, and we all know how that would have gone. Partly because there's more depth of quality, you can't have a billionaire hoovering up all the talent and stacking the odds so heavily in the favour of one or two clubs. What you can do is get the grass roots stuff right, and I know at some times there has been hand wringing about that when we've been poor. That issue seems to be addressed right now, we do now have a lot of quality.

I don't think we would have won the World Cup under Southgate and the negative football was painful to watch. Southgate deserves some criticism, but I don't think our loss in the final is an abject failure. We lost to the best team in the tournament. They certainly weren't unbeatable but they were clear favourites for good reason. I'm pretty downbeat about our chances in 2026 although some of that is admittedly because of the decades of failure I've witnessed. I guess we'll see.

Your England/Arsenal dilemma is a tough one, for me. I am overall more invested in Arsenal than England but that is balanced out by being quite jaded generally by club football and the money sloshing around which so heavily tips the odds in the favour of one or two very rich clubs. It has been too long since we won a title, but England have never won the World Cup in my lifetime, the thought of a national celebration is appealing. Throw in an Arsenal CL and that would be clear, Arsenal all the way. The way you've posed it, I might actually lean towards England.

[Mac76]

I'm Arsenal first for sure,

If it was the right team playing the right way I'd like England to win something, but I couldn't give a monkeys about a 'national celebration', I'd much rather a parade in N5 to celebrate a PL or CL :scarf:

[HCZ_Reborn]

Whilst there’s no guarantees in life, most often than not a winning World Cup team will have the best players. In 2006 you had it that there was a big(ish) pool of potential winners. And it’s far less of a lottery than you seem to be suggesting. Yes there are fine margins but say take Spain they may have laboured to 1-0 wins in all their knockout games but absolutely the coaching team who would have planned this World Cup win for some considerable time and would have factored in teams playing deep blocks, trying to use physical tactics to disrupt their rhythm but they worked on their fitness and tactics to endure these type of games.
And yes even then anomalies happen that they lost their opening game to Switzerland, to break down deep block teams they had to play in a way that did pose risk at the back.

When you have a lot of teams that are similar there are loads more variables to deal with and the outcome is far less predictable. But if you have a team that has a) the best players and b) a coaching team that has prepared for every possible permutation of events….whilst it’s not written in stone….the groundwork is firmly laid

[Letters]

When you have a lot of teams that are similar there are loads more variables to deal with and the outcome is far less predictable.
That is pretty much all I'm saying.

[HCZ_Reborn]

That is pretty much all I'm saying.

And what I’m saying is that’s not the case in most world cups.

2006 as I say was probably the last time there were more than say at most two-three teams that could win it

[Niall_Quinn]

Good effort but not good enough. England's goal was very nice. Some good football played from time to time, odd for a final. Spain not a great team, not anymore. So could have gone either way. At some point, some manager will abandon Pep ball and his team will be head and shoulders above anything else out there. So only real question is who, with balls, replaces Southgate?

[Mac76]

https://x.com/TrollFootball/status/1813928322705109325

:lol: