The fallacy of the long term manager

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Originally Posted by Letters

The analogy doesn't stack up of course, but for comedy value I'd agree.

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Do go on :popcorn:

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Originally Posted by Letters

The analogy doesn't stack up of course, but for comedy value I'd agree.

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It does.

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Originally Posted by Niall_Quinn

Enjoy the scone but reconsider who is doing the patronising. If you don't appreciate that one then maybe this will help you understand plus it has the bonus of being genuinely patronising.

Letters needs to get from his house (point A) to his job (point B) every morning. It's a long drawn out journey so he takes the bus.

On day #1 the bus turns up, the drivers smiles and he conveys Letters from A to B in double quick time.
Same thing happens on day #2
Same thing happens on day #3 and for the whole week the journey keeps getting faster and faster. Excellent service. Well worth the money.

Next week comes along, Letters takes the bus as usual, driver smiles, puts his foot down and off we go. However, over the weekend roadworks have been set up, there's a hole in the middle of the road. So a small diversion is in place.

Problem is, the bus driver ignores the diversion and continues up the road past all the warning signs. Straight into the hole. Everyone survives and a few passengers grumble about the shitty bus driver who can't follow simple warnings. Letters writes it off as a lapse in concentration. After all, this driver did the business the week before.

Day #2 of the new week dawns. Letters hops on the bus, same driver (a bit patched up but still with a cheery disposition), off we go.

The fucker ignores the signs and drives the bus into the hole. WTF? Everyone survives and more of the passengers have a grumble - what is WRONG with this arsehole? Just follow the bloody sign! A few decide they will walk.

Day #3, on the bus, ignore the sign, bang. In the fucking hole.

Day #4, in the hole, Day #5 in the hole. By day #6 Letters finds he's the only passenger remaining. The driver is in casts and bandages, hardly recognisable but still smiling and chatting as if nothing has happened. But still, bang, in the fucking hole.

Letters asks the driver, what's up with that fucking hole? The driver replies, I am the bus driver - how many buses have you driven? He also notifies Letters the fares are being doubled from tomorrow.

Day #7 dawns.

Now then, what does Letters do?

Does he:

A: Get on the bus and wait until the end of the journey to judge things?
B: Ring the bus company and ask for a better driver?

Yes of course, he gets on the bus. Can anyone predict what happens next?

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:haha: :haha: :haha:

I know that there is no voting in place 'yet' for one of the best post on GW ever, however I can say that this stands shoulder to shoulder alongside the confessions thread from old GW:

http://z13.invisionfree.com/goonersw...pic=19337&st=0

Almost as funny as Phil Brown's Diary...

:MOe:

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Originally Posted by Injury Time

Do go on :popcorn:

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Well, ok.

Firstly, a bus driving into a hole is a big calamity. Finishing 3rd and winning the FA Cup is a bump in the road at worst.
Secondly, as I said above, the last 10 years cannot all be assessed by the same criteria.
A better analogy is a series of buses who are racing.
For much of the last 10 years we have been racing with little bit handbrake on because of the new stadium debt while 2 of the other buses have expensive rocket boosters fitted, paid for by rich benefactors. And one of them didn't have the handbrake on and was being driven by one of the best drivers of all time. But yeah, our driver's a bumbling idiot for finishing the race behind some of them.

The last couple of years the bus with the best driver now has a more average driver and our bus is now able to be fitted with some rocket boosters. Therefore our driver should be judged by different standards, we are at less of a disadvantage. And while we may not have won the race the last 2 times, we've picked up a not insignificant consolation prize in each.
In the current race we are more or less keeping pace with the other buses but it's early in the race and I don't know what will happen at the end of the race. Others say it's obvious because of what happened in the last 10, I'm saying that you cannot use 10 years 'evidence' because the situation isn't the same in each of the last 10 years, it changed clearly 2 years ago and things have been better since. Not as good as we'd like them but better than before. Our driver had an opportunity to upgrade the bus before this race and probably didn't do enough, but we'll have to judge that at the end of the race, not near the start.

In any race there are difficult bends which must be negotiated, we had one a couple of weeks ago and skidded - but as the race officials decided to throw oil in our path as we were going round it I'm not sure we can conclude much from that. We have another on Sunday and how we negotiate it will give some indication as to how we're driving.


:coffee:

Analogies :bow:

:good: I think that is a decent analogy. Also, for the last 10 years, only 3 teams can claim that they did not want our 'problem'. Some of the posters on here clearly have not been with the Arsenal in the wilderness years and while sometimes things are frustrating, we are way better off than we used to be before Wenger turned up. I waited 18 years supporting the Arsenal before we finally won the league (in 1989) and many of those years in between we weren't even close.

As for this Ospina crap - this 'terrible' decision... We were playing one of the lesser sides in our group at home whereas we were playing manu at the weekend. It is not unreasonable to keep some people on the bench to make sure they are not injured before the manu game. Any manager in any situation has to balance risks without the benefit of hindsight and it was not unreasonable to balance who was played in the CL and the PL at the weekend. Of course, a clever manager would have known beforehand that Ospina would fumble a ball and accidentally concede a goal.

I dread to think what people would be posting if we were currently in Chelsea's position in the bottom half and with the second worse defensive record in the PL atm.

Other teams in the PL have not only learned techniques against the Arsenal - they have also learned how to play other top teams as well. Don't fall into the trap of the mass media reciting the 'accepted' mantra that it is just the Arsenal who don't like other teams parking the bus or 'getting in our faces' - code for kicking the shit out of the other team in a way that the ref lets them get away with it.

I am also frustrated that we did not find a goal scorer over the summer but I don't think Wenger is unaware of the requirement. We won't know why one was not bought but I am not convinced it is because Wenger did not look for someone.

So the word is, don't look here, look over there. No change then. Silly excuses.

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Originally Posted by Coney

:good: I think that is a decent analogy. Also, for the last 10 years, only 3 teams can claim that they did not want our 'problem'. Some of the posters on here clearly have not been with the Arsenal in the wilderness years and while sometimes things are frustrating, we are way better off than we used to be before Wenger turned up. I waited 18 years supporting the Arsenal before we finally won the league (in 1989) and many of those years in between we weren't even close.

As for this Ospina crap - this 'terrible' decision... We were playing one of the lesser sides in our group at home whereas we were playing manu at the weekend. It is not unreasonable to keep some people on the bench to make sure they are not injured before the manu game. Any manager in any situation has to balance risks without the benefit of hindsight and it was not unreasonable to balance who was played in the CL and the PL at the weekend. Of course, a clever manager would have known beforehand that Ospina would fumble a ball and accidentally concede a goal.

I dread to think what people would be posting if we were currently in Chelsea's position in the bottom half and with the second worse defensive record in the PL atm.

Other teams in the PL have not only learned techniques against the Arsenal - they have also learned how to play other top teams as well. Don't fall into the trap of the mass media reciting the 'accepted' mantra that it is just the Arsenal who don't like other teams parking the bus or 'getting in our faces' - code for kicking the shit out of the other team in a way that the ref lets them get away with it.

I am also frustrated that we did not find a goal scorer over the summer but I don't think Wenger is unaware of the requirement. We won't know why one was not bought but I am not convinced it is because Wenger did not look for someone.

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If Cech was an outfield player I might agree but Actually as you saw we put out a very strong first team so it wasn't a case of resting players for United.

And despite it being a must win game, Wenger decides to keep Ospina for non league games as a naive promise of game Time

There is no must win game with this team. Remember, there is always next season.

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Originally Posted by Globalgunner

There is no must win game with this team. Remember, there is always next season.

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I am only using the managers own words

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Originally Posted by fakeyank

:haha: :haha: :haha:

I know that there is no voting in place 'yet' for one of the best post on GW ever, however I can say that this stands shoulder to shoulder alongside the confessions thread from old GW:

http://z13.invisionfree.com/goonersw...pic=19337&st=0

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Couldn't sleep last night too much beer and Thai food I suspect, I spent a good hour or so reading that link, have to say I think we could do with a resurrection of the confessions page.

Old GW was amazing :bow:

:rose:

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Originally Posted by adzzzbatch

Old GW was amazing :bow:

:rose:

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What happened to all those incredible people.?

That was when the General section was probably the best place on the site. I do wonder happened to Nozza, Pants Model, Flavs (although I don't think he's too long gone) Mr Brighterside, Cripps (he's on Goonersworld now) Coca Kolo, Kaiser. Quite a few more I can't remember. There used to be that guy in Spain who always used to get into tear ups with Zim (Ozim) too, can't remember his name.

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Originally Posted by Globalgunner

What happened to all those incredible people.?

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They got banned <_<

My favorite poster was this dude called Nine.. he was a Liverpool fan, and boy was that man an idiot of epic proportions! :haha:

And of course, I miss Cripps.. one of the best internet message board posters ever! :bow:

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Originally Posted by fakeyank

They got banned <_<

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Oh piss off! Pretty much none of the old, good posters have been banned. It's incredibly hard to get banned from this place. Crips tried for years, we probably waited too long to ban him. Most people just drifted away. Shame, but people move on and in general I don't think message boards are as popular as they once were now people just set up FB groups and the like.

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Originally Posted by Letters

Oh piss off! Pretty much none of the old, good posters have been banned. It's incredibly hard to get banned from this place. Crips tried for years, we probably waited too long to ban him. Most people just drifted away. Shame, but people move on and in general I don't think message boards are as popular as they once were now people just set up FB groups and the like.

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Reddit. Gamechanger.

It is worth noting that a lot of people pissed off as a result of Cripps posting.

It was a real mistake on our part for not having banned him earlier.

Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

Agreed. And I hold my hands up as it was usually me who voted to let him back on here :doh:

I was the fool who made the case for letting him back when we set up the new forum.

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Gary :lol: awful mod

Cripps is over at Goonersworld, I wonder if he's reigned it in.

He had the capacity to be a decent poster so hopefully.
If he hasn't then I'm glad I don't look there, he ruined every thread he posted in - which was most of them.

Some of his posts aren't particularly funny but I could not see what people were getting their panties in a twist about, the argument is he didn't contribute to any discussion because of low level trolling but end of the day I think there are several board users here who qualify on that score

Has the forum been better off without him? That's the question really. Numbers are still dropping.

Nah. He polluted every thread. People left and they cited the pile of crap that infected the board.

There is less posting here but the trend was down for a considerable time. That was one of the reasons behind the move from invision.

However the quality of posting is better and there is considerably less bitchiness.

And once Letters converts to the dark side the bitchiness will be complete.

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:lol: You'll miss cheery Letters when we lose to Utd and I finally snap.

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Originally Posted by Letters

:lol: You'll miss cheery Letters when we lose to Utd and I finally snap.

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The fact that you said when suggests you're already on the precipice

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Originally Posted by Herbert_Chapman's_Zombie

Some of his posts aren't particularly funny but I could not see what people were getting their panties in a twist about, the argument is he didn't contribute to any discussion because of low level trolling but end of the day I think there are several board users here who qualify on that score

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:gp:

Frankly, I never understood how his WUMming was any worse than what we see on here today...

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Originally Posted by fakeyank

:gp:

Frankly, I never understood how his WUMming was any worse than what we see on here today...

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From what I can see the only ones who ever got banned were those who didn't have a positive opinion of Wenger, those who did never got banned.

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Originally Posted by fakeyank

:gp:

Frankly, I never understood how his WUMming was any worse than what we see on here today...

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Absolute bullshit.

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Originally Posted by Özim

From what I can see the only ones who ever got banned were those who didn't have a positive opinion of Wenger, those who did never got banned.

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Very few people got banned from here. You pretty much have to be a twat of epic proportions to manage it.

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Originally Posted by Bob Loblaw

Very few people got banned from here. You pretty much have to be a twat of epic proportions to manage it.

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Which does beg an obvious question....

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Originally Posted by LDG

Which does beg an obvious question....

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Because I'm one of the mods.

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Originally Posted by Özim

From what I can see the only ones who ever got banned were those who didn't have a positive opinion of Wenger, those who did never got banned.

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Zim you were the original standard bearer for the anti-Wenger argument. So who were you paying off to avoid being banned?

Maybe there should be a confessions page for the first time we started saying Wenger should go.

I've always been pretty fluid, I don't think it's unreasonable to state that fans are fickle and when we are going through a good spell I don't think about him slinging his hook that much.

Think the first time I remember saying I wanted him to go was about five years ago, coincided with the home defeat to Spurs and him shifting around on his seat in his sleeping bag jacket like he had a tape worm.

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Originally Posted by Herbert_Chapman's_Zombie

Maybe there should be a confessions page for the first time we started saying Wenger should go.

I've always been pretty fluid, I don't think it's unreasonable to state that fans are fickle and when we are going through a good spell I don't think about him slinging his hook that much.

Think the first time I remember saying I wanted him to go was about five years ago, coincided with the home defeat to Spurs and him shifting around on his seat in his sleeping bag jacket like he had a tape worm.

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A couple of seasons back, when we won the first FA Cup. I thought that was a good time for him to go out on a high, and maintain the respect that he deserves for his services to the club.

There is a difference between me thinking he's a "cunt", and what I think is best for the club, however.

I still hold no ill will toward him. I just think it's time for something new, especially as the same mistakes keep getting made. I would like nothing more than for him to prove me wrong and win us the title. I would put my hands up, say I got it wrong, and celebrate it. Will that happen? Unlikely, because I just think we'll make the same mistakes again....it might be next week, it might be after an eight game winning streak, but my money is on us blowing it, when we have it in our hands to win the thing. All previous evidence points to that being the likely outcome....

Well at least we can say with a degree of certainty that it won't be next week but for me your post expresses how I feel.

I have no confidence that Wenger can deliver us the big prizes nor do I think he is doing everything in his power t do it. It is that which annoys me most. He is an exceptionally gifted man but his Achilles heel is his stubbornness in persisting with a philosophy that is repeatedly failing him and the Club. He desperately needs to surround himself with a strong and capable team that can effectively challenge him and support him, particularly in areas where he has weaknesses. The buck would still stop with him and that is what great leaders do, but we know he never will.

He will never become a hate figure for me no matter how much I want him to go because I simply can never forget what he did for this club for the first three quarters of his tenure.

I think it was the back end of 10/11 that I really felt Wenger was losing it and I personally thought it would be best to make a change. We lost the League Cup final and bombed out of the title race only winning something like 2 of our last 10 games. That summer we lost Fabregas and Nasri and started the season with a depleted squad and sunk to an all time low with the 8-2 loss. Then we went on that mad trolley dash and I thought Wenger didn't really have a grasp of things anymore.

I love the bloke and I would happily feast on humble pie should we win the league again under him. I don't see it but I live in hope.

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Originally Posted by Özim

From what I can see the only ones who ever got banned were those who didn't have a positive opinion of Wenger, those who did never got banned.

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Any yet you're still here :shrug:

As Gary said: bullshit. Cripps was acually rapidly pro-Wenger for much of the time he was on here and was repeatedly banned for twattery. Our mistake was to keep letting him back. We learned our lesson in the end when we realised he wasn't going to learn his.

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Originally Posted by Herbert_Chapman's_Zombie

Maybe there should be a confessions page for the first time we started saying Wenger should go.

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The Birmingham League Cup Final, think that was the first time I really snapped with him.
Like you, my position about him is fairly fluid and I don't think that's fickle - it is if it's just based on one off games but over time you get a different feel about the team.
Right now after two Cups I think he's earned the right to be our manager this season at least. If we don't properly challenge this year then I think he should go.