This Weekend's Fixtures & Midwek Fixtures (29/30 Nov/01/03/04/05 Dec)

[HCZ_Reborn]

The league table, the overall form they've been in, other conversations I've had with people and things I've read.
They've played 20 games this season in all competitions, won 18, drawn 1, lost 1. I don't need to have watched the games to know that's a team worth taking seriously. You can cherry pick incidents here and there in games where you feel they've got a bit lucky, but over 20 games I call bullshit on those results just being luck or easy games.


I wouldn't say I'm very confident - I don't think one should ever be too confident about predictions in football. It is, famously, a "funny old game". But on paper yeah, I think those are mostly games they should win. But they do have a lot of away games coming up so I am of course hopeful they'll slip up here and there and that we can capitalise.

They have won 11 games out of 13 and a lot of it is down to luck, yet you’re responding as if I’m saying that every game they’ve won is down to luck.

No but they have had great fortune in playing us when they did, and playing city when they did. They got massive get out of jail card against Brighton and Southampton. And the fortune of the four times league winner falling apart at the seams.


Without that luck would they be leading the table at all let alone 9 points clear….its possible but as I keep banging my head on the desk figuratively to make clear, they are no better than last season in my view actually not as good and they have benefited heavily from fortune in their own games, fortune with city’s collapse and fortune with us not winning a single game in four.

I struggle with the fact that, that’s even controversial. I am confounded by their nine point gap only in so far that we should have beaten Bournemouth and Liverpool and that without referee intervention we’d have beaten Brighton and Man City (in my view, there’s no certainty)

Even in the champions league a competition they have rich historical prestige in, I watched their game against AC Milan and I wasn’t especially impressed at all….it was more of an indicator of how poor European teams have become (that’s not a dig at Liverpool either, I think when we won there in 2018 it was more a reflection on how poor they were rather than how good we were as well)


So to paraphrase Mrs Thatcher, you be impressed if you want to….but I’m going to have to see a lot more before I’m especially impressed and not just annoyed at the position we’ve put ourselves in

[HCZ_Reborn]

If you like I can break it down for you

Ipswich (a) - on balance deserved to win but they were distinctly ruffled first half

Brentford (h) - equally deserved to win but also had moments where but for Brentford being poor finishers could have dropped points

United (a) - United were terrible start to finish, 3-0 reasonable reflection of the game

Forest (h) - Liverpool were utterly blunted by Forest, once they scored they never looked like getting back into it


Bournemouth (h) - Comfortable win


Wolves (a) - Made it more difficult for themselves than needed


Palace (a) - Despite dominating early on were holding on at the end and grateful for palace being unable to make anything of their chances


Chelsea (h) - Dubious penalty settled game, when draw would have been fair result


Arsenal (a) - Should have had a penalty given to us, and again missed chances to kill the game off at 2-1, distinctly second best to us


Brighton (h) - Whether this was luck or character depends who you ask but they were played off the park by Brighton first half


Villa (h) - Bit like Brentford, Liverpool had most of the chances but Villa missed a couple of sitters


Southampton (a) - Benefited from a harsh penalty and Southampton committing self harm in defence


City (h) - Definitely deserved win albeit against a Shellshocked City team who decided to put out a questionable lineup



In my opinion, there are probably eight points Liverpool can attribute to good fortune. And unlike us they’ve had no bad fortune to balance it out

[Letters]

I struggle with the fact that, that’s even controversial.

I alluded to other people I talk to about football. You must do the same.
Is your thesis accepted by them or do they all think you're nuts too?

[HCZ_Reborn]

I alluded to other people I talk to about football. You must do the same.
Is your thesis accepted by them or do they all think you're nuts too?

Fuck me I’m suggesting a team has been lucky to get 20-25% of the points it has, it’s not claiming in discredited research that there’s a causal link between the MMR jab and autism.

Most friends I don’t discuss football with full stop because they aren’t interested. My brother doesn’t take issue with my claim about how fortunate they’ve been, but thinks we are more likely to drop points than them (but his mind has been poisoned by living in Liverpool so he cannot be trusted as an impartial individual). Another friend conversely is rabidly anti Liverpool to the point where he claims that due to Covid the season should have been scrapped and that they shouldn’t have been allowed to win the title then (now that is objectively a ridiculous opinion)

I think you talk about my need to be right when this whole futile argument seems to me to be predicated on your need to be right. It’s there in writing that I will have to reassess my view of them as both title contenders or likely title winners if they get past this hurdle. But it’s not enough, I need in your view to state something I don’t believe in the first place that there has been anything exceptional about them this season, I will concede that the Dutchman has been smart…I think the defeat at Nottingham Forest means that he reverted to the blueprint laid down for him by Klopp rather than try to model this Liverpool team in his own image and forcing a relatively more languid style on them.


But again it’s not a giant crazed conspiracy theory that they’ve been exceptionally lucky in a way we haven’t. And that a 9 point gap is not as daunting when you consider their remaining fixtures relative to ours, where I do agree is that a 9 point gap would be undesirable if it’s not eaten away sooner rather than later (when we have much easier fixtures to navigate than them).

[Letters]

Fuck me I’m suggesting a team has been lucky to get 20-25% of the points it has, it’s not claiming in discredited research that there’s a causal link between the MMR jab and autism.

So you haven't gone full NQ then. That's reassuring. One should never go full NQ.
That just feels an improbably high percentage this far into the season is all.

Another friend conversely is rabidly anti Liverpool to the point where he claims that due to Covid the season should have been scrapped and that they shouldn’t have been allowed to win the title then (now that is objectively a ridiculous opinion)

I'd have laughed my moobs off had they declared that season null and void with Liverpool so far ahead but yes that would have been ridiculous.

I think you talk about my need to be right when this whole futile argument seems to me to be predicated on your need to be right.

I'm the one saying I was wrong, pre-season

It’s there in writing that I will have to reassess my view of them as both title contenders or likely title winners if they get past this hurdle.

Well OK. Let's talk again in January. Of course, I hope you're right. I also don't think it's an insurmountable gap but my worry is we can't really afford any slips and we need Liverpool to do so quite a lot relative to how they've started. I don't think they will keep going at this rate, but winning becomes a habit so we need someone to dent that soon to stop their momentum. We are starting to build up some ourselves and we should be able to beat Utd but they're in a bit of a new manager halo so that's a banana skin.

[HCZ_Reborn]

So you haven't gone full NQ then. That's reassuring. One should never go full NQ.
That just feels an improbably high percentage this far into the season is all.


I'd have laughed my moobs off had they declared that season null and void with Liverpool so far ahead but yes that would have been ridiculous.


I'm the one saying I was wrong, pre-season


Well OK. Let's talk again in January. Of course, I hope you're right. I also don't think it's an insurmountable gap but my worry is we can't really afford any slips and we need Liverpool to do so quite a lot relative to how they've started. I don't think they will keep going at this rate, but winning becomes a habit so we need someone to dent that soon to stop their momentum. We are starting to build up some ourselves and we should be able to beat Utd but they're in a bit of a new manager halo so that's a banana skin.

Well it’s not a high percentage in terms of games, it’s saying there are four games from the 13 where they’ve been lucky to get either something or all three points from.


Chelsea, Us, Brighton and Southampton

I think Chelsea deserved a draw, they deserved to lose to us and Brighton and I think Southampton deserved a draw. There are games in the past where we’ve got more points than we deserve to
And I’ve explained why, you can either agree or disagree with the reasons I’ve given for it but, it’s weird to think of it as out there when there’s been an equally similar amount of games we’ve been unlucky with.

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

Ah piss flaps. I had an entire post written out and clicked Discard instead of Save.

Crack on, lads.

Sent from my M2101K6G using Tapatalk

[HCZ_Reborn]

When Haalaand meets top CBs, he's easily tamed.

Their over reliance on him scoring has been their most obvious weakness (usually exposed in big games) and thats one of the main reasons they are struggling now.

Once the goals from KDB and Foden started drying up, Pep should have considered bringing in more direct goal threats.

I’ve only just seen this now

Do you honestly think City just decided not to bring in another goalscorer just to even the odds maybe?

Or maybe that especially given that they are under investigation for having historically posted false accounting in regard to financial sustainability compliance, it probably wouldn’t be the smartest thing in the world to push the boat out?. Similarly do you think Newcastle are just being frugal despite being owned to all intents and purposes by MBS of Saudi Arabia for the fun of it as well?

[Letters]

Ah piss flaps. I had an entire post written out and clicked Discard instead of Save.

Crack on, lads.

Sent from my M2101K6G using Tapatalk

I was hoping you might join it.

[HCZ_Reborn]

SIB doesn’t strike me as a typical Liverpool fan, not full of hubris and weird sense of entitlement based on achievements made back when the Berlin Wall was still up.