I don't think he'll go either, in fact I don't think he'll go even if we drop out of top 4 but that is more to do with Wenger not wanting to go and the board being happy with him meeting their requirements, a season out of CL won't be enough for them to drop him.
So far this season is not that dissimilar to last season in as much as we've never really truly challenged for the title...if it finishes as it did last season I have no idea how Wenger can justify that he is moving the team forward, his words were that he will only extend his contract if he believes he is moving the team forward.
We've been found out tactically in pretty much all the big games this season, the only game we turned up in was Chelsea at home where we blitzed them, we very good against Chelsea, easily our best performance of the season.
In the other games we have been really poor and massively failed in game management, against City and Everton we were especially poor having gone ahead, it was like we gave up playing in both of them.
Against City our game plan was to try and plan on the counter attack, the problem was we were pressed off the ball and never had a situation to counter to relieve the pressure on ourselves. That's the big problem with Arsenal, i do think we need to train our players to have composure when we don't have time on the ball
We really have to step out game up this season if we want to finish top 2 or 3. Last season after 21 games we had 43 points yet we were top (8 points off 5th) but this time we have 44 and we sit 4th (with 5th and 6th not too far behind). I think Spuds, Liverpool and Chelsea will be top 3 and we will fight the Mancs for 4th.
He's had three seasons with Money to spend to come closer to winning the title, if we take away the nonsense of him finishing Third and second the last two seasons (we finished 12 and 10 points behind the winner) we haven't come close.
If we had been like Spurs (within 5 points with 4 games remaining) or Liverpool (leading in the title race going into the last three games) than even failing to win the title wouldn't be so bad as there would be signs of progress