I mean, it can't possibly be clear as day. The VAR lot spent a while looking at it and the ref - who hadn't initially given a penalty - went to the screen to have a look before giving it. If it was as clear as you're suggesting then none of that would have been needed.
However. I have had another look and there is a frame here where it appears he may have:
It's not that conclusive and definitely isn't as clear as day. But I'll concede he was a lot closer to the ball than I thought on initial viewing.
EDIT: I had another look at where the ball goes after the incident. It seems to speed up but it keeps going in the direction it was going in. Which suggests to me it's the England player who touches it, not the Serbian one. So...I think it probably was a penalty but it's less clear than I initially thought.