Agreed. That’s why I’d be interested in his opinion. The other Liverpool fan I know is very much a “don’t count your chickens” kind of guy so I doubt he’s planning the open top bus route just yet but I’d be interested to know what he thinks about your thesis.Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
I don’t know why you call it a thesis, it’s an opinion
Teams get lucky in games and win games or get draws where they might otherwise not really be deserving of it
Shock horror it’s happened to us, even two years ago when we had the same amount of points as Liverpool do now after 13 games there was one game I can highlight where I think we were extremely fortunate to get anything at all from the game let alone the win, and that was away at Leeds.
Leeds dominated the game from the time Saka put us ahead to the final whistle, and not only that but we had some big decisions go our way courtesy of VAR.
I’d also argue that in the first game of the season we got lucky when beating Crystal Palace, they pushed us back and it took a wicked deflection own goal to secure the points
Last edited by HCZ_Reborn; 02-12-2024 at 08:40 PM.
Oh holy shit, let’s not get into a bloody argument about semantics, you know what I mean!
Of course. But the reverse happens too. You can thump a side but the ‘keeper has one of those “none shall pass” days or you get a dodgy VAR call against you which disallows a goal. Then it goes in your net off someone’s arse and suddenly you lose a game and aren’t sure how. Of course those things happen but you seem to think that Liverpool have only had the kind of luck where things go their way. As we’ve discussed I haven’t watched the games but it’s far enough in to the season where that’s starting to feel statistically unlikely.Teams get lucky in games and win games or get draws where they might otherwise not really be deserving of it
But I’d be interested to hear what Sibbles thinks.
Honestly this is getting ridiculous now
What the fuck has statistical probability got to do with anything. Football games are often decided on fine margins, if Liverpool have had bad luck in that they could have won a game by five goals in which they only won by two it has had no material difference on their points total.
I’ve said that I believe they’ve been fortunate to get eight of the 34 points they’ve amassed. Either because they’ve been awarded soft penalties or not had penalties given against them or a side that outplayed them were noticeably missing glaring chances. We aren’t scientifically breaking every down instance now to a probability equation for fuck sake.
This debate is completely about your stubbornness not mine. I’m telling you there are games that in my view they got more points from than I thought they deserved and you’re tapping away at an imaginary calculator
Jesus, maybe spend some time with this missus because this is getting more interminable than reading your endless and ultimately pointless back and forths with NQ. If you’ve got time to debate to this, you’ve certainly got time to go back and watch extended highlights of the game and then come back to me and state whether you think it’s fair to say there are four games that on balance they probably didn’t deserve to win
Last edited by HCZ_Reborn; 02-12-2024 at 09:56 PM.
Honestly if it was just about holding onto a position from the beginning of the season, I’d have just made a remark about “oh that opinion panned out well” and left it at that. Or I’d just prefer to avoid the whole debate.
What you are essentially accusing me of is arguing dishonestly.
No, I’m saying what I honestly believe. Which is that Liverpool have had the rub of the green, they’ve had us fail to win in four, city the wheels fall off, they’ve had Salah and Van Dijk come into form in a way they hadn’t as much last season and the fortune on the pitch has in my view outweighed the misfortune.
There is a chasm of difference between agreeing with my opinion and treating it like I’m talking about chemtrails
Other teams' bad luck is only good luck for Liverpool if they take advantage of it - which they have
I think this season is becoming much more interesting than us trying to beat a robotically good Citeh and I just hope Liverpool do stutter and all our bad luck is behind us, but it will be difficult v Man Ure tomorrow - the new manager's already got them playing better and Rashford always gets a worldy at our ground, so we're basically starting 0-1 in that game already
Whilst this is of course true. It’s only one aspect of where I think Liverpool have been Fortunate
As i said last week about United, you’re not going to get tangible improvement (as in getting back to the point where they are competing for things) without significant squad overhaul. Beating Everton in a one off game suggests nothing. Maybe Rashford will get his obligatory goal against us, but if we actually turn up and play I expect three points
Maybe they do need a squad overhaul but if Leicester did prove one thing it's that the sides with the best players don't always win against a side with belief and momentum
I believe someone once said you can't win the league with kids, they were wrong too...
The kids in question were Ryan Giggs, David Beckham and Paul Scholes
I think some of their current youngsters are decent, but they aren’t at that level. Certainly not without bolstering
Youngsters also need to learn from older players, our youngsters like Fabregas, Reyes etc had plenty of people in the team they could learn from. Some of the senior members of that United squad are largely responsible for its malaise, overpaid prima donnas.
No, I'm accusing you of stubbornness.
Statistical probability is relevant because you can't just fluke a title. I'd argue Utd were lucky to win the Cup last year. They were a VAR decision away from humiliation vs Coventry, they were admittedly good in the final. But in cups you can get a bit of luck here and there which sees you through. In a league...not so much. The season isn't over of course, but I'm looking at their season as a whole so far. 20 games, won 18, drawn 1, lost 1. I'm not disputing they've been lucky in some games, that of course happens. But those stats aren't just luck, there's something about a team that can achieve that. Something which makes me believe I underestimated them.
Whether they can do it over the course of a whole season remains to be seen, and I'd agree they have overall had easier fixtures. But you've set out your criteria for how you're going to evaluate them so one thing we are aligned on is the importance of the Christmas milestone. If they're still this far above us at the turn of the year it's going to be tricky to haul them in.
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