Quote Originally Posted by Fist of Lehmann View Post
Yep, a high level of natural wastage is inherent in this strategy.

It should come as no surprise when most of these youngsters don't make it. At this age the gap between early sprouters and late starters can be huge. A kid who looked a prodigy at 17 may just have done most of his developing already.

Trying to predict how a kid will be after 5-6 years of development is extrememly hard. We take as many of the good ones we can get (within youth budget) and hope that they develop to the kind of level required to play at the top of possibly the toughest domestic league in the world. Most of them won't make it.

You get a far better strike rate buying at 21-24 but the price by then is already pretty high. Hell, kids like Lucas Moura and Gotze are already £30m+ at 19, those are the exceptionals.
surely lucas mora and Gotze have the potential to fizzle out as well, both of them are young and both of them have achieved relatively very little in their careers so far