So if we finish 4th and Chelsea win the Europa then 5 teams in the CL like MO said.
I think we will finish 4th, 3 wins definitely will be enough although that would mean winning of 2 of our 3 remaining away games, so no guarantee on that happening. I think 7 points probably be enough, as none of us, Chelsea or United are particularly consistent.
As long as Mustafi doesn't play we have a chance.