Quote Originally Posted by IBK View Post
Understand all that. But on the anomaly point - football progresses, and while you can of course say that our league position is a divergence from recent years I don't think that you can look at past seasons to assume that this trend will continue for Arsenal this season. The evidence is before our eyes. Arsenal is clearly a team on an upward trajectory and extrapolating from our performances this season suggests that we will finish in the top places. Its a question of belief, really. Yes we need to play teams that may be competing for top four, but we have already beaten Spurs twice for the first time in 8 seasons; Liverpool; Chelsea twice in the last year. We have found consistency that we lacked formerly and there is more reason for reason for optimism than for assuming we will lose against all the teams you have mentioned.

What I take issue with is the suggestion that we are only where we are because the traditional top teams have been inconsistent. Again, football evolves and with the money and talent flowing to the EPL other teams are undoubtedly uppoing their game, and this is to an extent why we are seeing 'anomalous' results week on week. So far, we are the team that has weathered this storm best.

I agree that we may fall short of the title - and the main reason for this (if it happens) will be fatigue and injuries that mean we can't play our first 11. But based on the evidence of this season my prediction is that the inconsistency of our competitors is more likely to continue than not.

I think the problem here is you seem to be describing what you think is most likely, and I’m describing what is possible.


I assume nothing, my explanation has been to provide evidence why it cannot be assumed we have secured top four let alone can launch a sustained title challenge. And the fundamental rationale I provide is that it’s just too early, the season isn’t old enough to assume that Arsenal’s form isn’t just anomalous based on a) our previous seasons and b) the previous seasons of the teams we are ahead of in the league.
I don’t believe anything I’ve said is fatalistic, or even suggests that the likelihood that “reality will assert itself” or some such thing. It’s simply to say we are 18 games in, it’s far too early to make any confident extrapolation.

Do I accept that it’s possible that the indifferent form of other sides will continue where as we will remain reasonably consistent? Yes because as you’ve stated there is evidence for that. Our form has actually followed a pattern, five wins…points dropped, four wins, points dropped, five wins, points dropped…now if that pattern continues you could maybe expect us to win the next three league games before we lose or draw.

But when I said anomalous I also mean unprecedented and it’s hard to predict the future without at least some reference of what has gone before, and whilst the short term future suggests our form will continue in that we seem to have avoided long winless runs…I don’t think there’s enough to suggest with any degree of confidence that will continue. But equally there’s also nothing strongly to say it won’t.

I don’t think we are favourites for the title purely because we’ve played 18 games. There’s too many variables and uncertainty out there.