Ah, fair enough.
The issue for me is we don't just need Liverpool to drop points - which I agree they surely have to soon - they have to drop MORE points than us. Quite a lot more. And I don't see their run in December as that difficult. Everton beat them last year but that was when Liverpool were in their real slump and played their way out of the title race. This year Liverpool are flying, Everton...aren't. Spurs I have some hope for but you can never tell what they're going to do. They lost to Palace then thumped Villa, lost to Ipswich then hammered City and then drew to Fulham

. They are capable of getting something vs Liverpool but you can never tell with them.
I just think you've underestimated Liverpool but I of course accept there is a long way to go and 13 games doth not a season make.