This Weekend's Fixtures & Two Others (01/02/03/12 Feb).

[HCZ_Reborn]

The 9 points, mostly. And a belief that while I think the title is almost certainly beyond us we have a decent run in and I believe we'll muddle through well enough to quite easily stay in the Top 4. Prove me wrong, boys, prove me wrong!

So the 9 point protection being a secure cushion is predicated on the belief that neither Manchester City or Newcastle will be able to get from the 42 points available 10 points more than we are able to get.

And I don’t think that can be considered a safe assumption. But assume if you will that Jesus, Havertz, Saka and Martinelli had been unavailable to us for the whole season….if we discount the possibility that no one would have stepped up and scored more goals than they have….we would at this point have fewer goals than Everton. When you are essentially taking away for a period of conservatively a month and a minimum of 4 games…around 50% of our goal output….dropping points goes from a possibility to a probability.

Yes of course the other teams can drop points as well, but we then have to concede that where we end up is no longer entirely in our own hands.

Because we are left with a dilemma, do we go for a draw in games in the belief that we can shut teams out, or do we go for wins and risk that probably about half the time we will end up losing because a) our vulnerability to the counter and b) the trouble we have breaking down teams defending a lead even when we have everyone fit and available.

To put it plainly there is simply no game that I would feel confident in saying we will win this game. In fact there are more games that I feel confident in saying I think we will lose this (Nottingham Forest away would be in my mind strongly for this).

[HCZ_Reborn]

Our next five games are

Leicester (Away) and West Ham (Home) If we score first I’d probably say our chances of winning are about 75%. But the chances of us getting the first goal have decreased by about 35%

Forest (Away) - Ultimately I think the best we can get is a draw, not because Forest even with our attacking options depleted are a better side or even close to us, but because they are masters at the counter attack and they are very good at defending leads.


Man United (Away) - Again if we score first, it’s likely we will win given how bad United have been at Old Trafford. But the fa cup game showed that they seem to be more resilient to defending our set pieces and catching us on the break


Chelsea (home) - If I’m honest I can’t see how we plausibly get anything from this game unless both Saka and Martinelli are back

[Mac76]

so let's say one of Leicester (who now have players coming back from injury just as we lose more) or W Ham is a draw, that's 4 points

Forest I'll say a draw though they could easily win - 1 point

Moan U - I'll say a draw - 1 point

Chelsea - as it's home I'll say a point

so 7 points from a possible 15

but we could beat both W Ham and Leics so that would be 9 from 15

[Niall_Quinn]

Agreed, but that’s a completely separate point from whether Liverpool would win their games in hand. If the positions were reversed and we had drawn both games in hand then people on here, and the gleeful media, would have been talking about us bottling it and

The point is I’m not that worried about Liverpool. They’ll drop enough points to let us back in. I’m worried about us being able to take advantage

Which is what I just said.

[Marc Overmars]

There is no title race let be honest. Liverpool will probably drop points here and there but there isn’t a chance in hell that we put together a winning streak with such a depleted forward line. It’s just fanciful thinking at this point. I would actually be pleasantly surprised if we’re still 7 points behind by April 1st.

[HCZ_Reborn]

so let's say one of Leicester (who now have players coming back from injury just as we lose more) or W Ham is a draw, that's 4 points

Forest I'll say a draw though they could easily win - 1 point

Moan U - I'll say a draw - 1 point

Chelsea - as it's home I'll say a point

so 7 points from a possible 15

but we could beat both W Ham and Leics so that would be 9 from 15

The problem as I see it is this

Over the past 100 games we have conceded the first goal on 27 occasions (that’s actually quite impressive) and from the 81 points available from those 27 games we have recovered to get 35. 10 wins 5 draws and 12 defeats (we’ve only lost once when scoring first in the last 100 games)

So if we are to take that 27 as a rough average, this gives us an average likelihood of conceding the first goal three times from the next 14 games. Our powers of recovery are shall we say mixed even when we have a full compliment of attackers to call on….without that it becomes closer to zero.

I think unfortunately the likelihood of conceding the first goal probably increases because the lack of attacking options means that if chasing a goal, our more deep lying players will have to come forward leaving even more space to exploit at the back.

So the possibility arises that we lose four or more of the next 14 games as a result of being more vulnerable to the counter

The other is that because our average goalscoring likelihood per game drops about 50% it puts far more strain and drains more energy from our available defensive players meaning that risk of the same soft tissue injuries that beset our attacking trio happening to our defenders.

And this is without factoring in the possibility of Nwaneri or Trossard suffering injury and Martinelli or Saka suffering a setback in their recovery.

[Mac76]

There is no title race let be honest. Liverpool will probably drop points here and there but there isn’t a chance in hell that we put together a winning streak with such a depleted forward line. It’s just fanciful thinking at this point. I would actually be pleasantly surprised if we’re still 7 points behind by April 1st.

agree entirey, the media will want to pretend there is to try and increase interest, but Hazertz' injury was the final nail in the coffin

[Shaqiri Is Boss]

I think it will still be "up for grabs now" come our game in May.

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[HCZ_Reborn]

I think it will still be "up for grabs now" come our game in May.

Sent from my CPH2663 using Tapatalk

Listen I get you’re all pessimistic as a result of conceding that 98th minute equaliser. But you really need to accept “the other candidate is dead” for an answer.

I mean you could blow a ten point lead to Forest or you could really be adventurous and blow a 14 point lead over Chelsea.

But as amusing as that might be, a) 26th May 1989 happened because Liverpool chased Arsenal down for the title not the other way round b) As I pointed out above, we are dead. Animated cadavers are the work of fiction….dead people can’t give pursuit

[Marc Overmars]

If it’s still up for grabs come the 36th game of the season, then we would have done exceptionally well. Even better than last year.