Well let’s look at the results in the champions league since we got back in, in 2023

PSV (H) - Beaten Everton 1-0 the Sunday before, won this game

Lens (A) - Beat Bournemouth 4-0, but lost this game


Sevilla A) - Drew with Chelsea 2-2, won this game


Sevilla (H) - Lost away at Newcastle, won this game


Lens (H) - Won away at Brentford, won this game


PSV (A) - Lost to Villa, drew this game (already qualified and played a weaker team)



Porto (A) - Beat Burnley, lost this game and went on to beat Newcastle at the weekend


Porto (H) - Beat Brentford, won this game and won the tie on pels


Bayern (H) - Beat Brighton, drew this game


Bayern (A) - Lost to Villa, lost this game


Atalanta (A) - Beat Spurs, Drew this game


PSG (H) - Beat Leicester, won this game


Shaktah (H) - Lost to Bournemouth, won this game


Inter (A) - Lost to Newcastle, lost this game


Sporting (A) - Beat Forest, won this game


Monaco (H) - Drew with Fulham, won this game


Dynamo Zagreb (H) - Drew with Villa, won this game


Girona (A) - Beat Wolves, won this game (albeit with a weakened team)


PSV (A) - Couldn’t score against Forest, put 7 past them


PSV (H) - Drew away at United, drew a game where the tie was over



Madrid (H) - Drew away at Everton, won this game


Madrid (A) - Drew at home to Brentford, won this game


PSG (H) - Drew at home to Palace, lost this game


I would say the best you can say is that a definite link is inconclusive, I think there are times where there is clear evidence of Momentum (Scoring 5 at Lisbon, then scoring 5 at West Ham) or the mini collapse in April 2024.

The reason I dismiss momentum or am at least skeptical about it here, is that we’ve clearly never managed to get a winning run together in the league yet we are in the semi finals (albeit that’s as far as we go)

What I think also is a bit of a supposition is that somehow we elected to play poorly against Palace. I’d argue Saka for example looked unfit in both games, we looked nervous in both games…yet we attribute the palace draw to complacency rather than a dip in form/performance.

We were poor in both games, and it leads me to conclude that we have zero chance of overturning the deficit in Paris…not only that but we might put ourselves in severe difficulties for qualifying for the champions league next season. Now if I’m right (and I hope I’m not)….then I think we can talk about Momentum and derailment