The fallacy of the long term manager

[Injury Time]

The analogy doesn't stack up of course, but for comedy value I'd agree.

Do go on

[fakeyank]

The analogy doesn't stack up of course, but for comedy value I'd agree.

It does.

[fakeyank]

Enjoy the scone but reconsider who is doing the patronising. If you don't appreciate that one then maybe this will help you understand plus it has the bonus of being genuinely patronising.

Letters needs to get from his house (point A) to his job (point B) every morning. It's a long drawn out journey so he takes the bus.

On day #1 the bus turns up, the drivers smiles and he conveys Letters from A to B in double quick time.
Same thing happens on day #2
Same thing happens on day #3 and for the whole week the journey keeps getting faster and faster. Excellent service. Well worth the money.

Next week comes along, Letters takes the bus as usual, driver smiles, puts his foot down and off we go. However, over the weekend roadworks have been set up, there's a hole in the middle of the road. So a small diversion is in place.

Problem is, the bus driver ignores the diversion and continues up the road past all the warning signs. Straight into the hole. Everyone survives and a few passengers grumble about the shitty bus driver who can't follow simple warnings. Letters writes it off as a lapse in concentration. After all, this driver did the business the week before.

Day #2 of the new week dawns. Letters hops on the bus, same driver (a bit patched up but still with a cheery disposition), off we go.

The fucker ignores the signs and drives the bus into the hole. WTF? Everyone survives and more of the passengers have a grumble - what is WRONG with this arsehole? Just follow the bloody sign! A few decide they will walk.

Day #3, on the bus, ignore the sign, bang. In the fucking hole.

Day #4, in the hole, Day #5 in the hole. By day #6 Letters finds he's the only passenger remaining. The driver is in casts and bandages, hardly recognisable but still smiling and chatting as if nothing has happened. But still, bang, in the fucking hole.

Letters asks the driver, what's up with that fucking hole? The driver replies, I am the bus driver - how many buses have you driven? He also notifies Letters the fares are being doubled from tomorrow.

Day #7 dawns.

Now then, what does Letters do?

Does he:

A: Get on the bus and wait until the end of the journey to judge things?
B: Ring the bus company and ask for a better driver?

Yes of course, he gets on the bus. Can anyone predict what happens next?

I know that there is no voting in place 'yet' for one of the best post on GW ever, however I can say that this stands shoulder to shoulder alongside the confessions thread from old GW:

http://z13.invisionfree.com/goonersw...pic=19337&st=0

[GP]

Almost as funny as Phil Brown's Diary...

:MOe:

[Letters]

Do go on

Well, ok.

Firstly, a bus driving into a hole is a big calamity. Finishing 3rd and winning the FA Cup is a bump in the road at worst.
Secondly, as I said above, the last 10 years cannot all be assessed by the same criteria.
A better analogy is a series of buses who are racing.
For much of the last 10 years we have been racing with little bit handbrake on because of the new stadium debt while 2 of the other buses have expensive rocket boosters fitted, paid for by rich benefactors. And one of them didn't have the handbrake on and was being driven by one of the best drivers of all time. But yeah, our driver's a bumbling idiot for finishing the race behind some of them.

The last couple of years the bus with the best driver now has a more average driver and our bus is now able to be fitted with some rocket boosters. Therefore our driver should be judged by different standards, we are at less of a disadvantage. And while we may not have won the race the last 2 times, we've picked up a not insignificant consolation prize in each.
In the current race we are more or less keeping pace with the other buses but it's early in the race and I don't know what will happen at the end of the race. Others say it's obvious because of what happened in the last 10, I'm saying that you cannot use 10 years 'evidence' because the situation isn't the same in each of the last 10 years, it changed clearly 2 years ago and things have been better since. Not as good as we'd like them but better than before. Our driver had an opportunity to upgrade the bus before this race and probably didn't do enough, but we'll have to judge that at the end of the race, not near the start.

In any race there are difficult bends which must be negotiated, we had one a couple of weeks ago and skidded - but as the race officials decided to throw oil in our path as we were going round it I'm not sure we can conclude much from that. We have another on Sunday and how we negotiate it will give some indication as to how we're driving.




Analogies

[Coney]

I think that is a decent analogy. Also, for the last 10 years, only 3 teams can claim that they did not want our 'problem'. Some of the posters on here clearly have not been with the Arsenal in the wilderness years and while sometimes things are frustrating, we are way better off than we used to be before Wenger turned up. I waited 18 years supporting the Arsenal before we finally won the league (in 1989) and many of those years in between we weren't even close.

As for this Ospina crap - this 'terrible' decision... We were playing one of the lesser sides in our group at home whereas we were playing manu at the weekend. It is not unreasonable to keep some people on the bench to make sure they are not injured before the manu game. Any manager in any situation has to balance risks without the benefit of hindsight and it was not unreasonable to balance who was played in the CL and the PL at the weekend. Of course, a clever manager would have known beforehand that Ospina would fumble a ball and accidentally concede a goal.

I dread to think what people would be posting if we were currently in Chelsea's position in the bottom half and with the second worse defensive record in the PL atm.

Other teams in the PL have not only learned techniques against the Arsenal - they have also learned how to play other top teams as well. Don't fall into the trap of the mass media reciting the 'accepted' mantra that it is just the Arsenal who don't like other teams parking the bus or 'getting in our faces' - code for kicking the shit out of the other team in a way that the ref lets them get away with it.

I am also frustrated that we did not find a goal scorer over the summer but I don't think Wenger is unaware of the requirement. We won't know why one was not bought but I am not convinced it is because Wenger did not look for someone.

[Niall_Quinn]

So the word is, don't look here, look over there. No change then. Silly excuses.

[Herbert_Chapman's_Zombie]

I think that is a decent analogy. Also, for the last 10 years, only 3 teams can claim that they did not want our 'problem'. Some of the posters on here clearly have not been with the Arsenal in the wilderness years and while sometimes things are frustrating, we are way better off than we used to be before Wenger turned up. I waited 18 years supporting the Arsenal before we finally won the league (in 1989) and many of those years in between we weren't even close.

As for this Ospina crap - this 'terrible' decision... We were playing one of the lesser sides in our group at home whereas we were playing manu at the weekend. It is not unreasonable to keep some people on the bench to make sure they are not injured before the manu game. Any manager in any situation has to balance risks without the benefit of hindsight and it was not unreasonable to balance who was played in the CL and the PL at the weekend. Of course, a clever manager would have known beforehand that Ospina would fumble a ball and accidentally concede a goal.

I dread to think what people would be posting if we were currently in Chelsea's position in the bottom half and with the second worse defensive record in the PL atm.

Other teams in the PL have not only learned techniques against the Arsenal - they have also learned how to play other top teams as well. Don't fall into the trap of the mass media reciting the 'accepted' mantra that it is just the Arsenal who don't like other teams parking the bus or 'getting in our faces' - code for kicking the shit out of the other team in a way that the ref lets them get away with it.

I am also frustrated that we did not find a goal scorer over the summer but I don't think Wenger is unaware of the requirement. We won't know why one was not bought but I am not convinced it is because Wenger did not look for someone.

If Cech was an outfield player I might agree but Actually as you saw we put out a very strong first team so it wasn't a case of resting players for United.

And despite it being a must win game, Wenger decides to keep Ospina for non league games as a naive promise of game Time

[Globalgunner]

There is no must win game with this team. Remember, there is always next season.

[Herbert_Chapman's_Zombie]

There is no must win game with this team. Remember, there is always next season.

I am only using the managers own words