Quote Originally Posted by Letters View Post
No, I'm accusing you of stubbornness.
Statistical probability is relevant because you can't just fluke a title. I'd argue Utd were lucky to win the Cup last year. They were a VAR decision away from humiliation vs Coventry, they were admittedly good in the final. But in cups you can get a bit of luck here and there which sees you through. In a league...not so much. The season isn't over of course, but I'm looking at their season as a whole so far. 20 games, won 18, drawn 1, lost 1. I'm not disputing they've been lucky in some games, that of course happens. But those stats aren't just luck, there's something about a team that can achieve that. Something which makes me believe I underestimated them.
Whether they can do it over the course of a whole season remains to be seen, and I'd agree they have overall had easier fixtures. But you've set out your criteria for how you're going to evaluate them so one thing we are aligned on is the importance of the Christmas milestone. If they're still this far above us at the turn of the year it's going to be tricky to haul them in.
No it’s not me being stubborn at all, it’s you. No one has said anything about fluking a title (apart from anything else because they’ve won nothing yet). What I’ve said is that in four games out of the 13 they’ve played…they got more points than perhaps they deserved to. And without even watching the games you’re showing the unmitigated arrogance of saying “well that’s statistically unlikely” as if there’s an objective measurement to be made. It’s an opinion, it’s not an out there one…it’s more out there that you’re dismissing what essentially comes down to a subjective point of view without even looking at the games in question.

Not only that but you’ve made assertions about how you believe they will perform in games coming up when you have little idea of how they’ve performed in games previously, apart from anecdotal evidence and looking at a league table.


Honestly it’s fucking ridiculous, and I think I’m going to have to draw a line under it now. I will not engage with you on this subject further until you actually make the effort to actually watch the games. Because then I could respect your opinion if you said “well I watched this game and whilst you’re right that X happened, I think it’s too simplistic an assessment because the overall play was better than Y”