No, I'm accusing you of stubbornness.Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn
Statistical probability is relevant because you can't just fluke a title. I'd argue Utd were lucky to win the Cup last year. They were a VAR decision away from humiliation vs Coventry, they were admittedly good in the final. But in cups you can get a bit of luck here and there which sees you through. In a league...not so much. The season isn't over of course, but I'm looking at their season as a whole so far. 20 games, won 18, drawn 1, lost 1. I'm not disputing they've been lucky in some games, that of course happens. But those stats aren't just luck, there's something about a team that can achieve that. Something which makes me believe I underestimated them.
Whether they can do it over the course of a whole season remains to be seen, and I'd agree they have overall had easier fixtures. But you've set out your criteria for how you're going to evaluate them so one thing we are aligned on is the importance of the Christmas milestone. If they're still this far above us at the turn of the year it's going to be tricky to haul them in.
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