This Weekend's Fixtures & Two Others (01/02/03/12 Feb).

[HCZ_Reborn]

The 9 points, mostly. And a belief that while I think the title is almost certainly beyond us we have a decent run in and I believe we'll muddle through well enough to quite easily stay in the Top 4. Prove me wrong, boys, prove me wrong!

So the 9 point protection being a secure cushion is predicated on the belief that neither Manchester City or Newcastle will be able to get from the 42 points available 10 points more than we are able to get.

And I don’t think that can be considered a safe assumption. But assume if you will that Jesus, Havertz, Saka and Martinelli had been unavailable to us for the whole season….if we discount the possibility that no one would have stepped up and scored more goals than they have….we would at this point have fewer goals than Everton. When you are essentially taking away for a period of conservatively a month and a minimum of 4 games…around 50% of our goal output….dropping points goes from a possibility to a probability.

Yes of course the other teams can drop points as well, but we then have to concede that where we end up is no longer entirely in our own hands.

Because we are left with a dilemma, do we go for a draw in games in the belief that we can shut teams out, or do we go for wins and risk that probably about half the time we will end up losing because a) our vulnerability to the counter and b) the trouble we have breaking down teams defending a lead even when we have everyone fit and available.

To put it plainly there is simply no game that I would feel confident in saying we will win this game. In fact there are more games that I feel confident in saying I think we will lose this (Nottingham Forest away would be in my mind strongly for this).