This Weekend's Fixtures & Two Others (01/02/03/12 Feb).

[HCZ_Reborn]

Your confidence in your ability to predict things given your past record continues to baffle me.

The point is I’m not predicting anything

That’s like me reading a poll saying one candidate is 20 points ahead in the polls and saying it’s likely that candidate might win is a prediction. No I’m simply making an observation based on the available evidence


And I’ve already caveated that by saying that things have a habit of not following these expectations


But I don’t think anyone looking at why I’ve reasoned as to why we are in massive peril can say oh that’s purely speculative.

[Letters]

But I don’t think anyone looking at why I’ve reasoned as to why we are in massive peril can say oh that’s purely speculative.

It definitely isn't speculative, although I think you're somewhat overstating the peril.
I don't believe Top 4 is under any serious threat, for example. And while I feel the title is beyond us, I'm clinging on to hope in a way which lots of people aren't. I'm an eternal optimist.

[HCZ_Reborn]

It definitely isn't speculative, although I think you're somewhat overstating the peril.
I don't believe Top 4 is under any serious threat, for example. And while I feel the title is beyond us, I'm clinging on to hope in a way which lots of people aren't. I'm an eternal optimist.

Ok, so I’ll bite. What are in your mind the protective factors (sorry that’s very counselling language ) that inform your belief that top four is not imperilled?

Or in layman’s terms. Why do you think I’m wrong?

[Letters]

What are in your mind the protective factors that inform your belief that top four is not imperilled?

The 9 points, mostly. And a belief that while I think the title is almost certainly beyond us we have a decent run in and I believe we'll muddle through well enough to quite easily stay in the Top 4. Prove me wrong, boys, prove me wrong!

[IBK]

The 9 points, mostly. And a belief that while I think the title is almost certainly beyond us we have a decent run in and I believe we'll muddle through well enough to quite easily stay in the Top 4. Prove me wrong, boys, prove me wrong!

Also the strength of the opposition, none of whom have shown that they have the ability to go on a run that sees us slip below 4th - notwithstanding our injury crisis. We may have to pivot to being a defensive first team that tries to nick a winning goal from set pieces or from MF, but we are good enough IMO to sustain a top 4 place.

[Letters]

Yeah, good point about the opposition. There's no-one below us who particularly worries me.

[HCZ_Reborn]

The 9 points, mostly. And a belief that while I think the title is almost certainly beyond us we have a decent run in and I believe we'll muddle through well enough to quite easily stay in the Top 4. Prove me wrong, boys, prove me wrong!

So the 9 point protection being a secure cushion is predicated on the belief that neither Manchester City or Newcastle will be able to get from the 42 points available 10 points more than we are able to get.

And I don’t think that can be considered a safe assumption. But assume if you will that Jesus, Havertz, Saka and Martinelli had been unavailable to us for the whole season….if we discount the possibility that no one would have stepped up and scored more goals than they have….we would at this point have fewer goals than Everton. When you are essentially taking away for a period of conservatively a month and a minimum of 4 games…around 50% of our goal output….dropping points goes from a possibility to a probability.

Yes of course the other teams can drop points as well, but we then have to concede that where we end up is no longer entirely in our own hands.

Because we are left with a dilemma, do we go for a draw in games in the belief that we can shut teams out, or do we go for wins and risk that probably about half the time we will end up losing because a) our vulnerability to the counter and b) the trouble we have breaking down teams defending a lead even when we have everyone fit and available.

To put it plainly there is simply no game that I would feel confident in saying we will win this game. In fact there are more games that I feel confident in saying I think we will lose this (Nottingham Forest away would be in my mind strongly for this).

[HCZ_Reborn]

Our next five games are

Leicester (Away) and West Ham (Home) If we score first I’d probably say our chances of winning are about 75%. But the chances of us getting the first goal have decreased by about 35%

Forest (Away) - Ultimately I think the best we can get is a draw, not because Forest even with our attacking options depleted are a better side or even close to us, but because they are masters at the counter attack and they are very good at defending leads.


Man United (Away) - Again if we score first, it’s likely we will win given how bad United have been at Old Trafford. But the fa cup game showed that they seem to be more resilient to defending our set pieces and catching us on the break


Chelsea (home) - If I’m honest I can’t see how we plausibly get anything from this game unless both Saka and Martinelli are back

[Mac76]

so let's say one of Leicester (who now have players coming back from injury just as we lose more) or W Ham is a draw, that's 4 points

Forest I'll say a draw though they could easily win - 1 point

Moan U - I'll say a draw - 1 point

Chelsea - as it's home I'll say a point

so 7 points from a possible 15

but we could beat both W Ham and Leics so that would be 9 from 15

[IBK]

I agree with HCZ here. We can wish all we want but the brutal reality is that even if Liverpool slip up, we are 99% certain not to achieve the consistency required to take advantage of this, given the state of our squad. It's a pretty straightforward analysis, really.