Quote Originally Posted by HCZ_Reborn View Post
I think the problem here is you seem to be describing what you think is most likely, and I’m describing what is possible.


I assume nothing, my explanation has been to provide evidence why it cannot be assumed we have secured top four let alone can launch a sustained title challenge. And the fundamental rationale I provide is that it’s just too early, the season isn’t old enough to assume that Arsenal’s form isn’t just anomalous based on a) our previous seasons and b) the previous seasons of the teams we are ahead of in the league.
I don’t believe anything I’ve said is fatalistic, or even suggests that the likelihood that “reality will assert itself” or some such thing. It’s simply to say we are 18 games in, it’s far too early to make any confident extrapolation.

Do I accept that it’s possible that the indifferent form of other sides will continue where as we will remain reasonably consistent? Yes because as you’ve stated there is evidence for that. Our form has actually followed a pattern, five wins…points dropped, four wins, points dropped, five wins, points dropped…now if that pattern continues you could maybe expect us to win the next three league games before we lose or draw.

But when I said anomalous I also mean unprecedented and it’s hard to predict the future without at least some reference of what has gone before, and whilst the short term future suggests our form will continue in that we seem to have avoided long winless runs…I don’t think there’s enough to suggest with any degree of confidence that will continue. But equally there’s also nothing strongly to say it won’t.

I don’t think we are favourites for the title purely because we’ve played 18 games. There’s too many variables and uncertainty out there.
This is one of the things I complained about when having debates with you; you seem not to provide evidence of any of your assertions while making it sound like you are.

Below is a snapshot of the EPL at half year stage last year. It is clear that every single team chasing us, that has a realistic chance of the title, has either equalled or done better than their half term haul last year. By the way, they also all seemed to have all miraculously finished in the top 4 at the end of the year.

Obviously these are just stats and I am not saying they must hold, but why do you frame your arguments like they are logical and based on some sort of empirical evidence while not recognising its just fear thats making you see things the way you are?

BTW I am not suggesting there is anything wrong with being afraid that we will mess it up as we have a consistent history of doing so, but recognise what the basis of your argument is built on and stop trying to dress it up as something else.

https://www.worldfootball.net/schedu...19/halbzeit-2/